Accrington Stanley vs Bradford Predictions

Accrington may have lost last weekend, but there’s no need for John Coleman’s men to panic. That was their first defeat since the opening day, so it’s fair to say that Stanley have been ticking along nicely. Now back in front of their own fans, they’ll be confident of regaining the winning thread, especially since they’re facing a Bradford side that continues to struggle.

When playing in front of a home crowd this season, Stanley have acquitted themselves well. Saturday’s hosts have avoided defeat in each of their last five on their own patch, while they’ve won each of their last two, beating Wimbledon by two goals to one and Doncaster by a goal to nil. Such form bodes well ahead of a match against Bradford.

Aside from what the formbook says, the hosts have very strong underlying numbers at home. John Coleman’s men, who like to get on the front foot an dominate games, are averaging a very pleasing 1.89 expected goals for at home, while they’re conceding just 0.98 at the other end. In only one of their six home games has the opposition created more in terms expected goals, while Stanley have also outshot their opponents in four of those six.

In contrast, Bradford have performed poorly away from home in every sense. With two wins and four losses, their form is disappointing, while the underlying numbers suggest that they’ve deserved to be beaten more often than not.

An average of 1.17 expected goals for on the road isn’t too bad, though an average of 2.41 against is nothing short of abysmal, while Saturday’s visitors have also struggled in terms of both shots and shots on target. The Bantams have been outshot in five of their six away games, while they’ve conceded more shots on target than they’ve taken in four of those.

In all honesty, it’s difficult to label this game anything other than an excellent opportunity for the hosts, who really ought to have enough about them to punish a visiting back-line that has been very leaky in recent times. With the hosts averaging 1.89 expected goals on their own patch and with the visitors shipping an average of 2.41 on the road, at the prices, ‘Accrington to Score Over 1.5 Goals’ is very hard to get away from at the current prices.