Anderlecht vs Mainz predictions, betting tips & match preview

A draw in their meeting two weeks ago leaves Anderlecht and Mainz in a three-way tie. They join Saint Etienne on five points, but which two will make their way into the next round? It’s going to be a pretty close race over the next three games, and one of these two sides could claim three crucial points towards qualification.

Group minnows Qabala have no points so far, after losing their first three games. Outside of their matches, every other game in this group has been drawn. That’s set up a three-way fight for the top two places, between three evenly matched sides. There’s no clear winner between the three, which makes this one of the competition’s most interesting groups. It also makes this game pretty compelling.

Mainz have managed to win 40% of their away games, but they’ve failed to win any of their last four on the road. They did win away to Qabala, but this is their first real test away from home in this competition. Their recent German Cup defeat at Greuther Furth shows that their away form has really taken a dip, but they have claimed results at Wolfsburg and Werder Bremen.

If you strip away the results against Qabala, these two teams have remarkably similar stats. For starters, they’ve each recorded two 1-1 draws. The German side have had 10 shots per game, while Anderlecht have managed nine. They’ve averaged a goal per game each, and half of their goals this season have both come from the penalty spot. The Belgians have converted 11% of their chances, with Mainz not far behind, 9% of their shots hit the back of the net.

This is likely to be a close game, given that they both know a defeat would be awful for their chances of qualifying. However, we’re still expecting goals here. Anderlecht have scored in every home league game, while Mainz have seen both teams score in 60% of their games so far. In their away fixtures, a third have seen BTTS. Seeing as these two teams seem to be very equal, you might want to look at draw and both teams to score, which is 3/1 with bet365.

We’re going for the draw on the match betting here, which is still well priced at 12/5 with bet365. There’s so little between them, from results to squad strength, that we’re backing them to be level again. After the results in this group so far, a 1-1 draw would hardly be surprising.