Atletico Madrid vs Bayern Munich Betting Tips & Predictions

Both clubs have already knocked out finalists from last season’s competition to reach this stage. Atletico Madrid came from 2-1 down after their 1st Leg to see off Barcelona 3-2 on aggregate in the Quarters and will be dreaming of a repeat of 2014 when they also knocked out the Catalans at the same stage and progressed to the final. Bayern are now the tournament favourites following Barcelona’s elimination but they haven’t had it easy in the knock-out rounds either.

They looked in deep trouble at Half-Time in the 2nd leg of their last 16 tie with Juventus. 2-0 down on the night and 4-2 on aggregate, the Bavarians staged a brilliant comeback putting 4 goals past the Italian Champions to progress 6-4 on aggregate. They beat Benfica 3-2 on aggregate in the following round, in a considerably more competitive match-up than many expected so we have seen signs of weakness from them.

This though is likely to be a considerably lower scoring game. Across Europe’s top five leagues, these are the two clubs with the best defensive records this season. Atleti have conceded just 16 goals in 35 league games this term and they’ve also kept clean sheets in 7 of their 10 Champions League matches. The absence of Diego Godin to injury is a blow but they are better equipped to deal with his absence than they have been in previous seasons. Without Godin in their last two matches, they’ve looked assured at the back, keeping two clean sheets and his impressive young compatriot Gimenez has really stepped up this season and is capable of leading the defensive effort here. Atleti have won all their last 5 matches, conceding just 1 goal since suffering defeat in the 1st Leg of their Quarter-Final at Camp Nou.

They won’t take any risks here with no need to chase the game like they had to against Barca. Clean sheets are a staple of Diego Simeone’s side and that will be their principal objective. Atleti have a great away record this term so even a 0-0 draw wouldn’t be a devastating result for them and two seasons ago they did overcome Chelsea at this stage despite drawing 0-0 at home in the 1st Leg.

Since the Quarter Finals, Bayern have won all three games they’ve played in Germany without conceding and are once again hunting a treble and are likely to win the Bundesliga on Saturday. Pep Guardiola’s side will give Atleti all the respect they deserve and will know this is going to be a very tough Semi-Final. 1st Legs of big European ties can often be quite cagey affairs and this could be the case. The visitors would love an away goal but will be wary of exposing themselves at the back and falling 1-0 behind, which would be the perfect scenario for Atleti as they could then do what they are best at, which is defend and potentially catch the Germans out on the break.

Atleti’s last 6 home Champions League knock-out matches have produced just 4 goals in total. There are some quality attacking players on both sides here though so we could see a moment or two of brilliance produce one but it’s hard to see many goals in this game and backing there to be under 2.5 goals at 8/13 looks a safe bet.