Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Zurich Predictions

After the first two matches in Group A, everything was going swimmingly for German side Leverkusen, though they were forced to leave Switzerland empty-handed on match-day three, as they lost by three goals to two in the reverse of this fixture. Now back on their own patch, the Germans will be hoping to return the favour and thus return to the top of the standings.

On the face of it, Leverkusen competed in the reverse fixture, though despite scoring twice and going down by just a single goal, the Germans were outclassed by their swiss counterparts. On the balance of play, Zurich, who clocked an impressive expected-goals count of 2.43 were good value for a more comfortable victory against a Leverkusen side that registered just 0.74 expected goals.

However, all is not lost. Leverkusen can be forgiven for their below-par performance a fortnight ago, especially since they nearly got something from the game even when not at their best. What’s more, Heiko Herrlich’s men performed well both on match-day one and match-day two, so there’s reason to believe that they can deliver an improved effort on this occasion.

In their only previous Group A home match, Leverkusen made light work of scoring four goals as they dominated AEK Larnaca, though they did show frailties at the back, frailties that have been present in each of their three games. By averaging 1.68 expected goals per match, the Germans have plenty about them in the offensive third, though they’ve conceded at least twice in all three group games so far, while their average of 1.41 expected goals against doesn’t exactly bode well.

As for Zurich, they too have looked useful in the final third, though unlike the hosts, they’ve done so without giving an awful lot away at the back. The reverse fixture was the first time that the Swiss outfit have conceded in Group A, while their average of just 0.73 expected goals against suggests that they’re doing a far better job of keeping teams quiet than Leverkusen. An average expected goal difference of +0.72 is also pleasing.

Given the underlying stats, coupled with the fact that Zurich were a good bit better than their German hosts a fortnight ago, it’s very easy to feel that the visitors are overpriced. Facing Leverkusen away will be tough, though Zurich have defended well in this competition, while they’re a threat both when making the running and on the break. At the prices, given their superior defensive record and their superior expected goal difference, the visitors are backed to gain a positive result at what appears to be a very generous price.