Brescia vs Atalanta Predictions

There’s little in common between these two bitter local rivals. Brescia host Atalanta on Saturday’s Lombardy Derby with the pair locking horns for the first time since 2006. The hosts have gone out and landed a big name – Mario Balotelli – to lead their survival push. Meanwhile, Atalanta have pieced together a squad of lesser-known stars to make the Champions League.

Brescia have fielded more Italian players (17) than any other side in Serie A this season; on the other hand, Atalanta have used the fewest Italian players (three) so far in the competition. So, will it be the homegrown hosts or the visiting foreign legion who claim the points in this encounter?

Another big difference between the two is their attacking output, despite Brescia landing Balotelli. Only Mallorca (34) have attempted fewer shots on target than Brescia (38) in the top-5 European Leagues this season. Meanwhile, Atalanta top that chart with 98 shots on target. They matched Brescia’s current total after just six games this season.

The visitors come into this clash as Serie A’s top scorers, while they had a boost following their 2-0 win over Dinamo Zagreb in the Champions League on Tuesday night. Just as la Dea scale new heights, the hosts are looking out of their depth in the top flight. The bottom side have earned only one point at home in the current Serie A season (D1 L4), fewer than any other side: the last time the Rondinelle have won a home game in the top-flight was back in April 2011 (3-1 against Bologna, under Iachini).

The visitors are starting to show themselves on the European stage, but they’ve been among the continent’s most ambitious sides for a long time now. Atalanta have had seven players with 30+ touches in the opponent box in Serie A 2019/20: a joint-record among the current top-5 European League alongside Manchester City and Paris Saint-Germain. That’s already paid off, with Atalanta scoring twice in 10 of their 13 Serie A games so far.

We expect the visitors to continue that streak here. Brescia have lost their last five outings, conceding 14 goals in total. The hosts have lost seven of their last eight to fall to the bottom of Serie A, while Atalanta are unbeaten on the road with the third-best away record in the division. Seeing as over 1.5 goals has landed in 92% of Atalanta’s league games alongside that great form, we see an away win and over 1.5 goals as a great pick for this weekend.

Since 1994-95, new Serie A bosses typically get their sides scoring. Brescia boss Fabio Grosso could become only the fifth manager to see his team fail to score in his first three Serie A games. We expect them to turn things around on the scoring front with Atalanta struggling at the back. The visitors have seen both teams score in 77% of their games so far, so we are backing a 3-1 away win as our correct score tip.