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Bury vs Colchester Predictions

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Bury
    Colchester

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      Bury vs Colchester Predictions

      Just a few weeks ago, Bury appeared to be booked for a top-three finish in League Two, though as they’ve now lost three on the bounce, their fate looks far less certain. Ryan Lowe’s men, who’ve spent a considerably portion of the campaign inside the automatic places, have now dropped to 4th position. They are just a point behind both MK Dons and Mansfield, so the race for the top three is far from done, but they need to regain the winning thread soon or they’ll likely drop too far behind.

      Bury may have come up short last weekend but it wasn’t ftom a lack of trying. The Shakers were certainly up for the game, as they delivered their usual attacking approach; they were on the front foot, created more than their opponents and were unfortunate not just to lose but to avoid coming out on top. An expected goal difference of +1.52 tells us that Bury were considerably better than their opponents, so they shouldn’t be judged too harshly for coming off second best.

      In addition to losing last time out, Bury have lost each of their last two at home, though if we go off their overall efforts at home this season, it’s not difficult to see Saturday’s hosts bouncing back. The Shakers have scored a very pleasing average of 2.3 goals at home this season, while they’ve averaged 1.93 expected goals for. An average expected goal difference of +0.86 also tells us that they’re useful when it comes to creating more than they give away.

      Creating more than they’ve given away is not something that Colchester have done all that often on the road of late. Saturday’s visitors did emerge victorious from their most recent travelling match, though they faced a weak Cambridge side that failed to put up a fight. Prior to that, the U’s were heavily beaten by Exeter, while Swindon gave them a beating prior to that.

      Not only have Colchester been subjected to a couple of heavy defeats on the road of late, but they’ve never really been the most imposing side away from home this season. They’re averaging a measly 1.08 expected goals for, which is why they’ve only scored an average of 1.1 goals on their travels. They’ve conceded an average of 1.35.

      When we consider Bury’s underlying numbers at home in conjunction with Colchester’s on the road, ‘Bury to Win & Over 1.5 Goals’ is easy to make a case for. In general, Bury have made light work of both creating chances and scoring goals at home this season, while Colchester, who’ve failed to find the net in two of their last three on the road, have found it tough to both create and score away from the comforts of home. Furthermore, they’ve been known to concede multiple goals in defeat.

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