Deportivo La Coruna vs Cordoba Predictions

Having spent several weeks on the outside looking in, Depor now occupy a top-six place ahead of the final weekend, which means that their task is rather straightforward; win and they’re in the play-offs. With both Cadiz and Oviedo breathing down their necks, Saturday’s hosts cannot afford to lose this match, while a draw is also likely to be enough to deny them a top-six finish.

Given that this is a must-win game for Depor, Saturday’s hosts will be glad that they’re facing already-relegated opponents in front of a home crowd. In truth, they could hardly have asked for a better opportunity. Not only do the visitors have nothing to play for, but the hosts have been very good at home, so they really ought to fancy themselves to get the job done.

They may have only the 10^th best home record in the division, though punters shouldn’t read too much into that. Depor have been very tough to face at home this season, as they’ve lost just three games at Riazor, while they’ve also conceded just 14 goals. Only three teams in the division have conceded less goals at home than La Coruna, who’ve scored a respectable 29 goals on their own patch.

What’s more, Depor boast an average of 1.65 expected goals for on their own patch, while they’ve only conceded an average of 0.75. Add in the fact that they come off the back of an excellent win against high-flyers Mallorca last time out at this venue and it’s looking good for Saturday’s hosts.

While Depor have done well at home this season, Cordoba have struggled massively on their travels. No team in the Spanish Segunda have accumulated less points than Saturday’s visitors, who’ve claimed just nine points on the road.

Cordoba have struggled defensively, conceding an average of 1.85 goals and 1.53 expected goals, and while they have improved somewhat in that respect in recent times, conceding more than once in just one of their last five travelling matches, they’ve continued to be blighted by a lack of forward quality.

When it comes to both creating chances and scoring goals, Cordoba have found it tough on the road, which is where they average just 0.75 goals for and only 0.75 expected goals for. They also come into this game having scored in just one of their last four away games.

Given everything we’ve seen from this pair in their respective home and away games this season, this is very much Depor’s game to lose. However, simply because they need to win, they’re massively overpriced in the Win/Draw/Win market. The bet that does catch the eye is ‘Depor to Win & Under 2.5 Goals’.

For all they’ve got the quality to get the job done, they’ve not been prolific at home, scoring an average of just 1.45, while they’ve not scored more than once in any of their last five at Riazor. Add in the fact that Cordoba, as bad as they are, have only conceded more than once in one of their last five travelling games and backing the hosts to win without going mad starts to make plenty of appeal.