Derby vs Manchester United Predictions

• Derby have scored just four goals in five home games against top-eight opposition in the Championship.
• Manchester United have failed to score in four of their six away games against bottom-eight Premier League teams.
• Derby haven’t conceded more than a single goal at home in the Championship since September.

Pride Park tough place to go

Recently, Derby were struggling to find their feet, winning none of their last four, though they made a timely return to the winners’ enclosure on Saturday, beating Sheffield Wednesday by three goals to one on the road. Phillip Cocu will be hoping that his side can use that victory as a platform for success in this competition.

The Rams aren’t in the most flattering league position, but their record at home is hard to ignore. They’ve lost none of their last seven at home, five of which they’ve won, while they’ve only tasted defeat on one occasion at Pride Park since August.

At home against the current top eight in the Championship, Derby have a mixed record, winning one, drawing two and losing two. Defensively, they’ve done a reasonable job against such teams, conceding just five goals in five games, but they’ve struggled offensively, scoring only four in five.

Visitors on the up

It’s certainly not been an uncomplicated season for Man United, who are still three points shy of the top four, though things have started to improve of late, or at least results have been relatively pleasing. Ole Solskjaer’s men are now unbeaten in eight games in all competitions, five of which they’ve won, while the fact that they easily got the better of lower-level opposition in the previous round should fill the visitors with confidence ahead of this fixture.

United may have made light work of beating Tranmere, but they’re now up against considerably better opposition. What’s more, Thursday’s visitors have tended to struggle away against the lesser teams in the Premier League this season, winning just one of their six travelling matches against the current eight. They’ve lost four of those six and have failed to score on four occasions too, keeping just one clean sheet in the process. Such numbers aren’t likely to strike fear into the hearts of the hosts.

Lack of goals forecast

The early betting ahead of this match suggests that a high-scoring game is likely, though upon digging deeper, we find that ‘Under 2.5 Goals’ might just be more likely than the current odds suggest. Against the best teams in the Championship, Derby have struggled to score goals, but they’ve performed well defensively, conceding just five in five. Less than three match goals were scored in four of those five. Much the same can be said for United away against the lesser Premier League teams. The visitors have scored in just two out of six away against the bottom eight, each of those six have seen less than three match goals go in.

In the ‘Correct Score’ market, a 1-1 draw appeals. Despite a general lack of goals against the bigger Championship teams, Derby have scored exactly once in four out of five against the current top eight. They’ve also either scored or conceded once in four of those five. United have not scored more than once away against lesser Premier League teams.