Eintracht Frankfurt vs Strasbourg Predictions

Ahead of their trip to France, Frankfurt would’ve been hoping to do two things. 1. Avoid defeat. 2. Score at least one away goal. Unfortunately, they failed to achieve either of those objectives, though as they only lost by a single goal, they remain very much in the tie.

Prior to taking on Strasbourg, Frankfurt had benefited from having two rather easy ties, as they got the better of minnows Flora and Vaduz without exerting themselves, scoring ten goals and conceding just two in the process. Adi Hütter’s men had no such luck on their travels last week, as they came up against a very useful Strasbourg side.

Where the Germans had previously been allowed to do as they pleased with the ball, they found that easily dominating was not going to be possible in the first leg. Frankfurt did see more of the ball at Stade de la Meinau, though they struggled to do much with it, as they registered only three shots on target and created a rather subdued 0.97 expected goals for. That said, they weren’t outplayed, while the fact that  Strasbourg created little more, despite being at home, will fill the Germans with confidence ahead of this tie.

Back on their own patch, Frankfurt ought to have a good go at turning this tie around. Their home performances in qualifying so far don’t carry much weight, as they faced inferior sides, though judging by their first home effort in the Bundesliga, whereby they looked reasonably solid in beating Hoffenheim, Die Adler will be tough to beat. Then again, their win over Hoffenheim was a narrow one, so it’s not at all difficult to envisage Strasbourg competing at Commerzbank-Arena.

The betting ahead of this match points towards an easy win for the hosts, though it’s easy to feel that their evening will be more complicated than the early Win/Draw/Win market suggests.

At the current prices, two angles of attack stand out. Firstly, ‘Strasbourg +1 Asian Handicap’ is tough to avoid. The French side proved that they can tussle with a side of Frankfurt’s nature last week, while they looked very solid when winning away from home at a tough venue during the previous round.

Secondly, ‘Both Teams to Score’ looks clearly overpriced. Neither side looked particularly menacing last week, but as they created 2.01 expected goals between them, there was enough to feel that the chances of both notching on Thursday are slightly greater than the current prices suggest. After all, Frankfurt have created an average of 2.06 expected goals for at home, while Strasbourg are averaging 1.94 on the road. Additionally, Frankfurt have both created and conceded an average of over 1.0+ during the early part of the Bundesliga campaign.