FK Qarabag vs Fiorentina Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews

Fiorentina passed up the chance to easily progress to the knockout rounds last time out. A 3-2 defeat to PAOK has opened this group up, and now the Serie A side travel to Azerbaijan. They need to pull off a result away to secure their place in the last 32, while defeat could see them locked in a three-way tie for qualification.

A defeat to Qarabag would see the Azerbaijanis move level on points with la Viola, while it also opens the door for the Greeks to make a late push for a place in the next round. The pressure is on Fiorentina; can they respond after messing things up a few weeks ago? With their league prospects not looking great, a European exit would be a huge blow for Paulo Sousa.

A lot will come down to PAOK’s game at home to Slovan Liberec, but it’s hard to see the Greeks messing that one up. That means a loss for Fiorentina here is likely to leave three teams on 10 points, making things incredibly tight. Then, the two sides who go through would depend on the scoreline in this match, as it would be a three-way head to head record which would separate them.

Fiorentina do have a strong record against Qarabag heading into this game, they won the first meeting 5-1. That was a rare high scoring match at the Stadio Artemio Franchi. Usually their home matches are low scoring affairs, with the goals saved up for their travels. So far in the league 73% of their goals for and 81% of their goals against have come on the road.

Fiorentina have conceded 1.86 goals per game away in Serie A, compared to just 0.43 a match in front of their own fans. Their away trips have been pretty entertaining so far, they average out at a total of 4.14 goals per match. It’s not likely they’ll come here and park the bus. They shouldn’t need to; they’d expect to get plenty of joy against a Qarabag defence which has conceded an average of two goals per game in this group so far.

Fiorentina have scored two or more goals in their last four in this competition, while all of those matches saw over 2.5 goals. There have been more than two scored in 86% of Fiorentina’s away matches in Serie A, while 60% of Qarabag’s outings in this group have seen over 2.5 goals.

These two seem pretty high scoring, and with both pushing for qualification, we’re backing three or more to be scored in this one. Over 2.5 goals here is priced at 19/20 with bet365.