Georgia vs Gibraltar Predictions

It’s not been a pleasing start for Georgia in Group D. They lost at home to Switzerland on match-day one, while they also tasted defeat when they travelled to Ireland on match-day two. Not only have they lost two on the spin, but they’re yet to score a goal in qualifying. Fortunately, a home match against minnows Gibraltar provides Friday’s hosts with the perfect opportunity to get off the mark.

Not only have Georgia lost each of their first two qualifiers, but their performances have been very displeasing. Against Switzerland on match-day one, the Georgians failed to get involved offensively, as they mustered just a single shot on target and accumulated only 0.38 expected goals for. In contrast, they shipped eight shots on target and conceded 2.36 expected goals. They did do better when losing 1-0 against Ireland, though their attacking efforts were still weak, as they clocked just 0.58 expected goals for. They surrendered 1.16 on that occasion.

Fortunately, Georgia performed well at home against lowly opposition during the UEFA Nations league, as they won three out of three on their own patch, beating Latvia, Andorra and Kazakhstan, averaging 2.0 goals for and 1.36 expected goals for. They conceded an average of just 0.33 goals and 0.62 expected goals. Such numbers bode well ahead of a match against Gibraltar.

Gibraltar may have only lost by a goal to nil at home to Ireland in their only previous EURO 2020 qualifier, but they were slightly flattered by the result, as they clocked only 0.61 expected goals for and conceded 1.9.

As well as failing to get seriously involved against Ireland in their most recent competitive game, Gibraltar were poor on the road in the UEFA Nations League. They did beat Armenia away from home, though they lost against both North Macedonia and Liechtenstein, conceding six goas and scoring none in the process.

On their travels in the Nations League, Gibraltar surrendered an average of 2.16 expected goals, while they averaged just 0.57 for. They also conceded a rather worrying average of 27 shots, whilst averaging only 5.67 at the other end.

From a betting point of view, ‘Georgia -3 Asian Handicap’ stands out. For all the hosts haven’t thrived in EURO qualifying, their home efforts against lesser sides in the Nations League suggest that they can really get at Gibraltar, who found it very tough to keep teams at bay when playing away from home in that competition.