Gwangju FC vs Seongnam FC Predictions

• K League 2 champions Gwanju were unbeaten in 17 of their 18 second tier home games last season.
• Seongnam scored fewer away goals than any other K League 1 club in 2019.
• The Magpies failed to score in 42% of those matches on the road.
• Only three teams conceded fewer goals over all than Seongnam last season however.

Gwanju targeting positive start

Last year’s K League 2 champions Gwangju are gearing up to contest their first top-flight assignment since 2017 on Sunday, and the Griffins have an excellent opportunity to get their campaign off to the perfect start at home to Seongnam.

Gwangju leaned heavily on their home form to clinch top spot in South Korea’s second tier last term, losing just once in 18 fixtures at the World Cup Stadium overall and conceding just 12 times along the way – and head coach Park Jin-sub will know that maintaining those high standards on their own patch this year will be key to their success in 2020.

On paper at least, the Griffins seem to have bought sensibly in the off-season, adding experience at the back in Han Hee-hun and Park Jun-hee and Ansan Greeners, while their top-scorer last year, Brazilian Felipe should be a real handful at the other end.

Defensively, Gwangju were excellent in 2019, shipping just 0.86 goals per 90 minutes of league action on their way to claiming the best defensive record in the division, and the fact that the new boys meet a notoriously stingy Seongnam outfit in the season opener on Saturday suggests we should be in for a low-scoring fixture.

Seongnam’s defensive focus

The Magpies enjoyed a solid first season back in the big time themselves in 2019, earning a 9^th place finish thanks to some robust displays at the back.

Seongnam finished the season with the division’s 4^th best defensive numbers, and their ability to strangle the life out of games was particularly noticeable in their performances on the road.

Just two sides conceded fewer goals than the Magpies on their travels in 2019, though their defensive focus had a major detrimental effect on their potency up front, where Seongnam scored just 13 times in total on their travels last year – the lowest away haul in the entire league.

In fact, under 2.5 goals were registered in 63% of the Magpies away matches overall in 2019, and they failed to register completely in 42% of the same games.

While new Seongnam manager Kim Nam-il will hope to eventually play more expansively in 2020, his philosophy will undoubtedly take time to take hold, and in the meantime, we should expect more low scoring affairs involving the Magpies in the early throes of the 2020 season, staring with Saturday.

With those aforementioned factors considered, we like the look of the under 2.5 total goals market the weekend’s tussle, while our correct score prediction settles on a 1-0 home win.

Seongnam’s struggles in front of goal away from home are well established, and powered by home advantage, we’re backing newly promoted Gwangju to just about eke out an opening round win.