Holsten Kiel vs Cologne Predictions

Holstein Kiel have undergone a bit of an overhaul since finishing third at the end of the 2017/18 Bundesliga 2 campaign. As newcomers to the league at the start of that season, the fact that the North German side almost made it back to back promotions from the 3. Liga is something of an achievement in itself, but after failing to win the Bundesliga playoffs against Wolfsburg, star midfielder Dominick Drexler (combined 22 goals and assists last season) and top scorer Marvin Ducksch (18 goals in 33 last season) found themselves out the door over the summer. Most notable of all though is that influential coach Markus Anfang also departed for Cologne, meaning Kiel have a completely new style this time around. Now stood 11th in the league after nine matches, it’s easy to see how detrimental these departures have been.

Relegation from the Bundesliga can often see a club resigned to losing its best players, with clubs cherry-picking bargains only too happy to jump from the sinking ship, but that hasn’t wholly been the case at Cologne. Germany international Jonas Hector and goalkeeping talent Timo Horn spurned advances from some of Europe’s more prestigious teams over the summer, commiting their future to Cologne, for one season at least. The Billy Goats have, thus far, proved themselves a force to be reckoned with in the Bundesliga 2, standing top of the table with 19 points over their opening nine matches (W6 D1 L2). However, their shock defeat to then bottom of the table Duisburg just before the international break has thrown a spanner in the works.

Looking ahead to Cologne’s fifth away match of the new Bundesliga 2 season, there are a couple of key factors that makes us feel that this match will be worth tuning in for. Firstly, Cologne’s new boss, former-Holstein Kiel manager Markus Anfang, has a very attacking philosophy. His former side may have failed to win promotion to the Bundesliga at the end of last season, but they did end the 17/18 campaign with the best goal difference in the league (+27 with 71 goals scored). His entertaining brand of football saw 71% of Kiel’s matches end with over 2.5 goals scored, while 50% of them ended with over 3.5 goals. Cologne’s performances under his leadership have shown that same fiery and aggressive style – something that has cost them at times – and when put alongside Holstein Kiel’s recent home matches – a 2-2 draw and 4-2 win – there looks to be value in “over 3.5 goals”.

And there’s no reason to expect that Anfang will deviate from that same offensive approach on Saturday, with the Billy Goats having the artillery to back up that tactical line. Cologne’s Simon Terodde has been unstoppable as of late, having tallied a massive 16 goals over his last eight competitive outings. He should prove a threat again here against a Holstein Kiel side without a clean sheet at home this season. However, despite cracks in their defense, Kiel are almost always a tough side to better at home – in fact, they’ve lost just two of their 21 home matches since promotion to the Bundesliga 2 in 2017 – and we could see them causing Cologne some trouble too. Given that both sides are in equally poor defensive form – 14 goals conceded each, the 6th worst records in the Bundesliga 2 – we feel there is some value in a score draw here. Our prediction: a 2-2 draw.