Levante vs Lugo Predictions

Having drawn 1-1 in the first leg, La Liga side Levante will be looking to use their home advantage to come out on top and thus progress to the next round. Confidence will be high in the home camp after their 3-0 win in the league on Monday evening.

When the teams met in the first leg, they were locked together at 1-1, though that score-lie didn’t quite do the game justice. Neither side did a good job of keeping the other at bay, while they both created plenty of chances going forward. On another day, the pair would’ve shared four or five goals.

Levante will have undoubtedly given a bit too much away for manager Paco Lopez’s liking in the first leg, though it’s not something that the boss isn’t used to. This season, Levante have played well at times; they’re useful going forward and can certainly score goals, but they are all too often easy to undo at the back, even on their own patch. In La Liga during the current campaign, Wednesday’s hosts have shipped a worrying 14 goals in seven matches at home, while they’re giving up an average of 1.82 expected goals. Lugo may be a second division team, but such stats will give them belief ahead of the trip to Estadi Ciutat de València.

Second division teams can often get stage fright when visiting a top-tier side, even if they’ve done well against the same side at home, though Lugo ought to be uplifted by their performances in the first leg, while let’s face it, they’re not taking on a Barcelona on a Real Madrid. Levante are a useful side, but they’re not be feared and can be got at.

Away from home in their own division, Lugo haven’t exactly thrived, but they’re not facing expansive teams on a regular basis. The visitors seemed to enjoy the fact that Levante opened the game up in the first leg, and with the hosts essentially guaranteed to adopt an attacking approach on their own patch, there will certainly be opportunities for Lugo. Whether they can keep things tight at the back or not is another matter. Judging by their efforts against Levante a month ago, coupled with the fact that they’re shipping an average of 1.51 expected goals away from home in their own division, probably not.

At the prices, considering that both Levante and Lugo exceeded 2.0 expected goals for in the first leg, coupled with their respective defensive efforts this season, the bet that stands out is ‘Over 2.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score’. The hosts have the quality to do plenty of damage going forward, but defensive solidity could once again elude them.