Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Strasbourg Predictions

It wasn’t easy for Plovdiv last time around, despite them heading into the second leg with a 2-0 aggregate lead. After losing away from home, the away-goal rule saved the Bulgarians, who’ll be looking to do the business against a very useful Strasbourg side on Thursday evening.

Away from home in the previous round, Plovdiv struggled; they offered a reasonable amount going forward, but they found it very tough to keep tabs on the Spartak Trnava attack, as they conceded three goals, eight shots on target and 2.15 expected goals.

Fortunately, the Bulgarian hosts performed far better on their own patch. On that occasion, Lokomotiv Plovdiv won 2-0, as they produced an encouraging 2.1 expected goals for, conceded 0.77, registered eight shots on target and restricted their opponents to zero. If they can repeat that performance on Thursday, then Bruno Akrapović’s men should be capable of staying in the tie ahead of their trip to France.

Strasbourg also played very well at home during the previous round, as they got the better of Maccabi Haifa, though unlike Thursday’s hosts, they also performed well on the road, despite losing 2-1. On their travels, the French side offered plenty going forward; they registered seven shots on target and accrued a pleasing 2.11 expected goals for. Such numbers bode well ahead of this match, though the fact that they were breached twice, giving away 1.38 expected goals in the process, doesn’t.

As we can see from the above, scoring goals is something that this pair have in common. Between them, the pair are averaging 3.5 goals for per game in qualifying, while they’re averaging a whopping 4.17 expected goals for.

When we consider the qualifying efforts of both this term, ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ begins to stick out as overpriced. Not only did Lokomotiv Plovdiv deliver 2.1 expected goals for during the previous round, but Strasbourg produced 2.11 on the road. Add in the fact that Lokomotiv’s home game produced 2.87 expected goals, alongside the fact that Strasbourg’s away game produced 3.48, and supporting the goals to flow at Lokomotiv Stadium Plovdiv makes plenty of sense at the current prices.