Ludogorets vs AEK Larnaca Predictions

Three matches in and Ludogorets will be disappointed with how their campaign has gone so far. The Bulgarians have just accumulated just one point from their opening first three games, so it’s fair to say that manager Antoni Zdravkov will be looking for his side to deliver an improved performance when they host AEK Larnaca on Thursday evening.

On the face of it, Ludogorets secured a pleasing draw in Cyprus a few weeks back, though if we examine that match more closely, it’s easy to see that the Bulgarians were fortunate to take a share of the spoils. In terms of chances created, it is was AEK who very much made the running and to eb quite honest, the Cypriots will have walked off the pitch feeling hard done by on that occasion. The fact that Ludogorets ended the game having clocked 0.78 expected goals says it all.

Right from the word go in Group A, Ludogorets have given too much away. Against Leverkusen on match-day one, the Bulgarians paid the price for being too open at the back, while they also conceded more than they created against Zurich on match-day two. In addition, their defensive efforts last time out, when giving up 2.18 expected goals, were especially poor. Now back at home, Zdravkov’s men need to improve at the back.

In contrast, AEK Larnaca have done a more than reasonable job at both ends of the pitch, so they can certainly feel a little hard done by the fact that they only have a single point after three games.
After a disappointing start at home to Zurich, where they didn’t play particularly well, the Cypriots have improved from a performance point of view. They looked more dangerous than Leverkusen in Germany, scored twice, but were unable to hold firm at the back, even though they didn’t exactly give away an abundance of chances, while they were easily the better side in the reverse of this fixture.

Having created plenty in their last two UEL fixtures, Larnaca will back themselves to make offensive headway on Thursday and rightly so, though their defensive record is a tad worrying. By giving away an average of just 1.19 expected goals, the Cypriots have done well when it comes to limiting their opponents, though when push comes to shove, their final line of defence seems easy to breach.

Given the fact that Ludogorets are averaging 1.42 expected goals per match, coupled with the fact that AEK Larnaca are averaging 1.7, ‘Both Teams to Score’ is worth a go at the prices. Both teams looked capable of hurting each other last week, while the underlying data suggests that there’s unlikely to be a shortage of goals, especially if Ludogorets open the game up by deploying their usual attacking style.