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Ludogorets vs TNS Predictions

  • 17:30
  • Expired
  • Ludogorets Arena
Ludogorets
The New Saints

odds when tipped

odds when tipped

odds when tipped

Ludogorets vs The New Saints Predictions

Europa League regulars Ludogorets made light work of seeing off Valur in the previous round, which means that they should come into this fixture against Welsh side TNS feeling ultra-confident. Will it be another easy win for the Bulgarians or will TNS surprise their hosts and upset the odds?

Ludogorets, as expected, found it easy to overcome Icelandic opponents in the last round. They didn’t manage to win away from home, though they were still hugely dominant in all areas, while they made up for not winning on the road, by easing to a 4-0 victory at this venue, where they registered no less than 11 shots on target and created a very pleasing 3.05 expected goals for. They conceded just 0.44.

Unlike Ludogorets who entered qualifying at the second stage, TNS are yet to play in qualifying for this competition, as they’ve featured in UCL qualifying, though by losing out to Copenhagen a week ago, the Welsh side have dropped into Europa League qualifying.

During the UCL qualification process, TNS did manage to make it further than the first stage, as they beat Kosovan side Feronikeli, but they weren’t exactly convincing, progressing thanks to a rather fortunate single-goal victory away from home, whereby they created just 0.7 expected goals for and conceded a whopping 3.13.

However, TNS did perform somewhat admirably against a very useful Copenhagen side, despite losing. They Welshmen only lost by a goal to nil in Denmark, while conceding 1.49 expected goals for is far from embarrassing. If they can be similarly resolute in Bulgaria, then Scott Ruscoe’s men are likely to still be in the tie by the time they play in front of a home crowd.

From a betting point of view, this is anything but a game to go mad about, though both ‘TNS +2 Asian Handicap’ and ‘Under 2.5 Goals’ stand out as bets that represent slight value.

For all Ludogorets looked strong at home during the previous round, if we run their overall numbers against TNS’ UCL qualifying numbers, it’s easy to feel that the hosts are too short. It’s not that they’re not likely winners, but that they’re less likely to be as comfortable as the current odds suggest. What’s more, when we consider TNS’s very disciplined defensive performance in Copenhagen a week ago, where just five shots on target occurred and where only 1.54 expected goals were recorded, the chances of a relatively low-scoring game also appear to be slightly greater than the current prices would have us believe.

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