Luton Town vs Scunthorpe Predictions

Despite going a goal down away at Oxford on Tuesday night, Luton showed their class to come out on top. It’s now four games since the Hatters tasted defeat in League One, so Nathan Jones’ men should be feeling confident ahead of Scunthorpe’s visit to Kenilworth Road on Saturday afternoon.

It was unclear at the start of the campaign whether Luton, who proved to be too good for most teams in League Two last season, would be able to seriously challenge at this level, but as each week passes, the Hatters look more and more at home in League One. Earlier in the season they were steady, but Nathan Jones’ men have really started to stamp their mark of late.

On their own patch, Luton have done an excellent job going forward this season, as the fact that they’ve scored nine goals in five home matches suggests. What’s more, Saturday’s hosts look good as far as the attacking underlying numbers go, as they’ve accumulated a very strong expected goals for total of 8.4. And it’s not just what they’ve done in the offensive third that has impressed. With just 4.4 expected goals against, Luton have a pleasing expected goal difference of +4.4 at home.

In contrast, Scunthorpe have struggled on their travels. They’ve conceded too many goals, have conceded far too many scoring opportunities, while they haven’t done enough in the offensive third either. Tuesday’s attacking performance was pleasing, but they were once again poor at the back.

Interestingly, Scunthorpe have only managed to concede less than 2.4 expected goals in two of their five away matches, while they’ve shipped a rather worrying total of 10.6 expected goals when playing on their travels. Such stats just won’t do, and while the Iron have improved under Stuart McCall, their improvement has mainly been in the final third. Thanks to doing a bit more going forward, Scunthorpe are competing, but they still look very open, as Tuesday’s eight-goal thriller against Charlton suggested.

The visitors, who’re averaging 1.58 expected goals for in their last five, have started to offer more going forward, so it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise if they were to get on the score-sheet in this fixture. If they attack as they did against Charlton on Tuesday, then they won’t be far away, though their defensive problems are there for all to see. Luton are very strong going forward, as both their performances and the underlying numbers suggest. The hosts are simply backed to outscore their opponents, whose dodgy back-line is expected to cost them. At the prices, ‘Luton to Win & Both Teams to Score’ stands out.