Numancia vs Las Palmas Predictions

Having reached the play-offs last season, Numancia would’ve been hoping to do well again this season, though they’ve fallen massively short of their own expectations. With just one game to go, Sunday’s hosts find themselves in a lowly 16^th position, so it’s fair to describe the current campaign as a season to forget. Much of the same can be said for Las Palmas, who’ve failed to push for promotion after being relegated from La Liga last term.

If only Numancia had offered more on their travels, then they could’ve put together a challenge for the top six for the second season running. They’ve not been excellent at home, but they’ve offered a good amount, winning ten, drawing four and losing six. Only five teams have scored more home goals than Numancia this season, so Sunday’s hosts are clearly no mugs going forward, while they’re generally capable of offering more than their opponents, as positive average goal and expected goal differences suggest.

Las Palmas have essentially had the same problem. They’ve been solid at home, winning nine, drawing nine and losing just three of their 21 games at Estadio Gran Canaria, though they’ve struggled to get anywhere near that level on the road, as they’ve accumulated less than half the points. On their travels, Las Palmas have won just three out of 20, which is simply not good enough.

A lack of goals has been the main reason behind Las Palmas’ failures on the road, but they’ve also struggled at the back. They’ve scored 16 and have conceded 32. Therein lies the problem. Creating more than they’ve given away has also been an issue for Sunday’s visitors, who average 1.03 expected goals for on their travels. They’ve surrendered an average of 1.41.

Given that they’ve undoubtedly been better at home than Las Palmas have on the road, Numancia deserve to be favourites ahead of this match, though their odds-on price-tag looks somewhat excessive.

At the current prices, ‘Under 2.5 Goals’ looks to offer punters a smidgen of value. Firstly, in terms of creativity, neither side has looked great. Numancia average only 1.31 expected goals for at home, while Las Palmas average just 1.03 on the road. Add in the fact that the pair have scored a combined average of only 2.26 goals in their respective home and away games and it looks as though the chances of a low-scoring game unfolding at Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos are greater than the betting suggests.