Nurnberg vs Fortuna Dusseldorf Predictions

After winning their first top flight match since March 2014 last weekend, a 2-0 triumph over Hannover, Nurnberg came plummeting back to reality with an absolute hammering in their blockbuster match away to Borussia Dortmund on Wednesday. It was the first time we’ve really seen the Bavarians look out of their depth since making the step up from the Bundesliga 2 and that demoralising 7-0 defeat moved them from holders of the joint second best defensive record in the Bundesliga (3 goals conceded) to the single worst defensive record (10 goals conceded). Nurnberg are on the right track for surivival with five points on the board from five matches though, and when you look over their opening matches so far – Hertha, Mainz, Bremen and Hannover – it seems at least that coach Michael Koellner has got his side making the most of their “favourable fixtures”.

Fortuna Dusseldorf, who were crowned Bundesliga 2 champions after beating hosts Nurnberg on the final day last season, look to have also settled in well enough to the top flight. Fortuna are 13th in the table, equalling the hosts’ five points from five matches, and were even somewhat unlucky to have lost their mid-week match at home to Leverkusen (2-1 defeat) – Leverkusen registered far fewer attempts on goal than them. Some positive results before that, such as draws away to RB Leipzig (1-1 draw) and Stuttgart (0-0 draw), make it reasonable to expect that coach Friedhelm Funkel will be hoping for at least a point here, especially with his attacking options. New recruits Alfredo Morales and Dodi Lukebakio both have competitive goals under their belts already, and forward Rouwen Hennings (second top scorer last season) got his first Bundesliga goal during the week.

So, what markets are we looking at for this match? Well, you’d not be wrong for thinking that there looks some value in the visitors here, but we feel the most obvious angle is in the under 2.5 goals market for the following reasons: while Dusseldorf have been proving the more dangerous side in terms of shots on target, ranking 9th overall in the Bundesliga compared to the host’s 13th place, they’re rate of conversion is far less impressive – Fortuna are only averaging around one goal per game (5 goals total). Nurnberg have been a far less dangerous side but have almost scored the same number (4 goals), most of which have come at home. We also have to consider Nurnberg’s mid-week pummelling as an anomaly – it is VERY unlikely that Dusseldorf are able to capitalise on Nurnberg’s defensive weaknesses as Dortmund did on Wednesday. Before that, Nurnberg held one of the tightest defenses in the league over a set of fixtures against teams of a similar or better quality than Saturday’s opponents too.

Between them, you’d have to say Dusseldorf were the marginally better side – last season’s league standings back that up as much – and summer investment has helped Dusseldorf build that gap. However, Nurnberg have the home advantage, which has counted for a lot in the past – the Bavarians have lost just 4 of the prior 19 meetings between them there (W14 D1 L4). Nurnberg have held their own against sides like Mainz and Hannover at home and are in general able to keep weaker offenses at bay – under 2.5 goals were scored in all but one of Nurnberg’s league matches so far this season (W1 D2 L2). With Dusseldorf drawing in both of their away matches so far this season – and with under 2.5 goals being scored in both of them too (one 0-0 draw and one 1-1 draw) – we’re expecting another tight affair on Saturday. Our prediction: a 1-1 draw.