Paderborn vs SC Freiburg Predictions

No team has had more of a rollercoaster few years than SC Paderborn, who are back in the German top-flight after four years – they went all the way to the 3. Liga and back in that time! And in their opening 19/20 campaign game, the excitement continued. Paderborn scored two and conceded two in the opening 25 minutes and were close to claiming a point away to last season’s fourth-best side, Bayer Leverkusen.

Coach Steffen Baumgart, who is undertaking his first managerial stint in the Bundesliga, looks to favour attacking duo of Sven Michel and Streli Mamba at the front of a 4-4-2. Paderborn did lose a few players over the summer, but Mamba, in particular, who has made the step up from the 3. Liga looks to promise more goals for a club that scored no less than 76 times in the second tier last season.

Freiburg were another side who saw late goals last weekend. Three between the 81st and 86th minute saw Freiburg go from 0-0 to 3-0 over Mainz in the club’s first opening weekend win since the 15/16 season. Germany U21 international Waldschmidt bagged the third from the penalty spot, but it was the introduction of Lucas Holer just after the hour mark that changed the game.

Both of these players could get the nod to start as coach Christian Streich deals with a bit of an injury crisis. A number of absentees, including those of new signings Chang-Hoon Kwon and Gian-Luca Itter, also opens the door for young South Korean attacker Woo-yeong Jeong, newly arrived from Bayern Munich, to make his way into the squad.

Paderborn go into the game as slight favourites, and we feel that there are plenty of stats that make them worth backing. For a start, Baumgart’s men have only lost one of their last 23 league home games (W14 D8 L1), while Freiburg aren’t a particularly good travelling side – in fact, they won just 2 of their 17 away days last season (W2 D5 L10).

Notably, Freiburg have also been defeated in each of their last four matches on the road, with an aggregate record of 2-12. Given Paderborn have already proven their attacking prowess last weekend away to Leverkusen, such a negative record is more likely to prove costly for the visitors.

However, Paderborn’s full-throttle style also favours a higher-scoring game, and with both teams scoring in 65% of their matches last season, we could see Freiburg getting on the scoresheet too – ‘both teams to score’ has been a winning bet in each of the last five meetings between them after all. Our prediction: 2-1 Paderborn.