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Plymouth Argyle vs Walsall Predictions

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Plymouth Argyle
    Walsall

      odds when tipped

      odds when tipped

      Plymouth Argyle vs Walsall Predictions

      After winning each of their first two matches after dropping down a level, Plymouth, whose only goal this term is to get promoted, looked in good shape, though they’ve since failed to win either of their last two. Regaining the winning thread ASAP is a must, though beating Walsall, who’re also looking to bounce straight back to League One, won’t be easy.

      Plymouth come into this match off the back of a decent performance away against the financially powerful Salford City. The fact that Richie Wellens’ men scored twice and created 1.6 expected goals for was pleasing, though they didn’t exactly keep things tight at the back, as they shipped twice and surrendered 1.3 expected goals.

      In the final third, the Pilgrims have looked useful at times, though their defensive shakiness is a bit worrying, especially as they’re going for automatic promotion. They may have a positive goal difference after four matches, which suggests that they’ve done better going forward than they have at the back, though Plymouth have conceded +0.25 more expected goals than they’ve created, which tells us that they’re allowing their opponents to create more than them.

      While Plymouth have shown a few defensive weaknesses over the first four match-days, Walsall, who were also relegated from League One last term, have looked solid. Saturday’s visitors are yet to concede more than a single goal, while they’ve also kept two clean sheets.

      After four matches, Walsall have conceded just two goals, which is very respectable. An average of 0.92 expected goals against suggests that the Saddlers have done a good job of restricting their opponents.

      In the betting, Plymouth come into this match as warm favourites, which after their mid-week draw away against Salford is unsurprising, though they look a little short. For all Plymouth, who have both the manager and a number of the players who took Bury up last term, are likely to emerge as clear promotion contenders in time, there early-season efforts haven’t been quite good enough to warrant such strong favouritism ahead of a match against a Walsall side that has done a good job of frustrating teams. On this basis, a small play on ‘Walsall +0.25 Asian Handicap’ is merited.

      Simply,as they’ve conceded less, in terms of goals and expected goals, shots and shots on target, than Saturday hosts, the visitors appear to have a slightly greater chance of getting a positive result than the current prices suggest. Therefore, a bet on the above offers a slither of value.

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