Rapid Vienna vs Villarreal Predictions

Prior to match-day three, Austrian side Rapid Vienna probably won’t have been feeling confident having lost 3-1 in their previous away match in Group G, and a lack of confidence showed when they were thrashed 5-0 by in Valencia a fortnight ago. Now back on their own patch, the Austrians will be hoping to get more competitive against a Spanish side that ran riot in the reverse fixture.

Rapid’s worst defeat of the group so far came on match-day three, though it was hardly a surprise that the Austrians found themselves on the end of a real hammering, as they signs had been there on both match-day one and two. Against Spartak, Vienna did win by two goals to nil, though they didn’t exactly deserve to come out on top, while their defending was particularly questionable. Such defensive frailties came to the fore against Rangers on match-day two, while we all know what happened when their rickety back-line took to the pitch at Estadio de la Cerámica a fortnight ago.

Having conceded eight goals in their last two UEL matches, conceding an average of 2.16 expected goals, it’s easy to fear for the hosts on this occasion, while their offensive efforts don’t exactly tell us that they’ll get overly competitive. Vienna have failed to the 1.0 expected goal mark in each of their three Group G matches, which tells us that they’re not particularly creative in the final third.

In contrast, since a rather subdued opening against Rangers, Villarreal have really come into their own in this competition. Thursday’s visitors made light work of both scoring goals and creating chances against Rapid a fortnight ago, while they did the same when facing Spartak away from home on match-day two. In both of those matches, the Spaniards clocked up an expected-goals for count of 2.43, though when facing Spartak away, they did give a good deal away, conceding 2.7 expected goals, which led to keeper Andres Fernandez picking the ball out of his net on three occasions.

It’s true that Rapid have disappointed offensively, though they did have a few moments in Spain last time out, so it’s easy to feel that they can do better in that respect now back on home soil, especially since the visitors struggled to contain in their only previous away match.

Given the price on offer, coupled with the performance of Villarreal in Moscow, which was good offensively and displeasing defensively, the bet that stands out is ‘Over 2.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score’. With a combined expected-goals for average of 3.35 and a combined average of 3.32 against, it would be a surprise if goals eluded the game at Allianz Stadion on Thursday evening.