RB Leipzig vs Nurnberg Predictions

RB Leipzig have had hot and cold patches since the start of the 17/18 season, but they finally look to have gotten their feet back on the ground for the 18/19 campaign. Leipzig’s 2-1 win away to Hoffenheim last weekend means that they’ve now taken 10 of the last 15 possible points, the league’s best number over that run. And despite resting a few players in their mid-week Europa League trip to Rosenborg, the Red Bulls extended their winning streak by leaving Norway with a 3-1 win. Someone like star forward Timo Werner, who sat the entirity on that game on the bench, will therefore no doubt be itching to get some valuable game time here. He’s out to get his 50th Bundesliga goal and should be Leipzig’s main attacking threat.

Nurnberg bounced back about as well as they could from the 7-0 beating at Borussia Dortmund last Wednesday. Last weekend saw them get the better of fellow promotees Fortuna Düsseldorf in a 3-0 win at home. It was interesting to see the Bavarians look out of their depth and then in control in two entirely different fixtures in the space of a few days, which probabaly gives credit to how good Dortmund look under new boss Favre. Nurnberg are on the right track for surivival with eight points on the board from six matches so far, and when you look at the overall picture – their other opening matches have been against Hertha, Mainz, Bremen and Hannover – it seems at least that coach Michael Koellner has got his side making the most of their “favourable fixtures”.

However, away to RB Leipzig is not such a favourable fixture, and betting-wise it’s hard to see any value in the visitors. Instead, for us the value lies in goals. Leipzig boast one of the better attacking records but one of the worse defensive records in the Bundesliga – the perfect combination for goals at both ends. Leipzig have kept just three clean sheets from their 15 competitive outings so far in the 18/19 campaign (6 Bundesliga, 8 Europa League and 1 DFB Pokal), and largely against much weaker opposition than Sunday’s opponents. Simply put, RB Leipzig’s trademark offensive play often comes at the detriment of their defense – in fact, they’ve conceded 8 goals across all their last five competitive outings at home, an average of almost 2 goals per game conceded – and visitors Nurnberg have scored at least one goal in five of their seven competitive outings too.

How many goals is another question though. And for us, over 3.5 goals looks the best line. RB Leipzig’s wealth of attacking talent such as Timo Werner, Yussef Poulsen, and Jean-Kevin Augustin have scored 8 of Leipzig’s 10 goals between them so far this season and have much more to offer going forward than some of Nurnberg’s players. But, that’s not to say the visitors couldn’t get a goal either, with both teams scoring in 12 of RB Leipzig’s last 14 Bundesliga home outings. Ultimately, the combination of Leipzig’s strong offense and weak defense should see this be a thriller – over 3.5 goals have been scored in a big proportion of their home outings so far –  but Leipzig are a tough team to take points away from, and of all the teams that could head to the Red Bull Arena and cause an upset, a side that lost 7-0 to Dortmund in their last away outing is not one of them. Our prediction: 3-1 Leipzig.