SC Freiburg vs FSV Mainz 05 Predictions

Freiburg prepare for a fourth consecutive top-flight campaign after finishing 13th – three points above Schalke 04 – in the Bundesliga last term. And no doubt they will be relieved to kick off the season at home after only just progressing through to the second round of the DFB Pokal via a tight 1-0 win away to third-tier Magdeburg last weekend.

Head coach Christian Streich looks ahead to the opening game with a bit of an injury crisis on his hands though. A number of absentees, including those of new signings Chang-Hoon Kwon and Gian-Luca Itter, opens the door for young South Korean attacker Woo-yeong Jeong, newly arrived from Bayern Munich, to make his debut for the club.

Mainz have a number of injuries of their own to deal with. French striker Mateta is set for a lengthy spell on the sidelines – he got four of his club-high 14 Bundesliga goals last season against Freiburg – while star midfielder Jean-Philippe Gbamin left over the summer to join Everton in the Premier League.

Such a change to the formula saw Mainz start their 19/20 campaign off in the worst way, being dumped out of the DFB Pokal first round in a 2-0 defeat away to third-tier Kaiserslautern last weekend. To make matters worse, an away day to the home strong Freiburg is a challenging opening day fixture.

Freiburg go into the game as favourites, but there is one further stat that sticks out for betting on this game: only four sides had a home record with a higher ‘both teams to score’ rate than Freiburg (71%) last season. A bet on goals at both ends would have landed in all but two of their last 13 home outings too – and the two that didn’t were against RB Leipzig and Bayern Munich.

Mainz, meanwhile, might have blanked out last weekend but were more than capable of an away goal last season. They scored against Frankfurt, Dortmund and Bremen in three of their last four away days of the 18/19 campaign, with second top scorer Robin Quaison, who is set to feature, bagging two of these. In terms of results, however, they have work to do.

Mainz lost in seven of their last eight on the road, conceding two goals or more in six of these (75%). Against a side as good at home as Freiburg, we reckon it will be tough for them to buck this trend. Freiburg scored 19 goals over the eight home games they played in 2019, an average of just over two per game, so we like them to come out ahead. Our prediction: 2-1 Freiburg.