Spain vs Bosnia and Herzegovina Predictions

Having lost by three goals to two against England, paying the price for some sloppy defending, Spain would’ve been keen to avoid the same mistakes when they took on Croatia on Thursday evening, though Luis Enrique’s team were once again punished for coming up short in the defensive third. This may only be a friendly, but the Spanish will surely be keen to address those problems and thus resume winning ways.

Since Luis Enrique took charge, the Spanish have re-found their attacking mojo; they’ve been scoring goals at will, notching at least twice in each of their five matches since the World Cup, scoring no less than 15 in total. However, while La Roja continue to look good on the ball and in the final third, they’ve continued to come up short at the back. Enrique’s men have kept a clean sheet in just one of their last five, while they’ve conceded a total of eight goals during that time.

The bare stats suggest that Spain have performed differently at either end of the pitch, while the underlying data supports this. Both home and away against England in the Nations League, Spain surrendered more than 1.49 expected goals, while they gave up a whopping 2.43 in Croatia on Thursday evening. Bosnia don’t exactly have the most menacing attack, but the visitors may not need to do too much if the Spaniards insist on leaving themselves so open.

While Spain have been involved in a lot of high-scoring matches over the last few months, Bosnia have been involved in plenty of subdued encounters. They’ve scored in just three of their last five, while they’ve kept four clean sheets during that time. On the face of it, things are going well for Robert Prosinečki’s men.

However, while they have kept four clean sheets in their last five, their average of 1.44 expected goals against suggests that they’ve been slightly fortunate. Such an average also suggests that the Bosnians could struggle to contain a Spain attack that is far better than anything they’ve faced over the last few months.

At the other end of the pitch, Bosnia haven’t exactly thrived by averaging just 0.98 expected goals, but they may just enjoy playing on the break against a Spain side that continues to leave themselves exposed at the back.

From a betting point of view, Spain, with their superior attack, which is averaging 1.96 expected goals for, are backed to have too much in the locker for the visitors, though the current state of a home rear-guard that is giving up 1.4 expected goals on average, means that the best option at the prices is ‘Spain to Win & Both Teams to Score’.