St Pauli vs Union Berlin Predictions

Prior to the winter break, St. Pauli looked in good shape. They got the better of Bochum, Furth and Magdeburg in quick succession, which allowed them to shoot up into a flattering position inside the top three. However, they lost when returning to action, which allowed Monday’s opponents, who beat Koln first game back, to overtake them in the table. That said, Union are only ahead of St. Pauli on goal difference, so Monday’s hosts won’t feel too disheartened, as a win here would see them regain third position.

Given their form prior to Christmas, when the were unbeaten in seven, St. Pauli’s efforts when they returned to 2. Bundesliga action during the week were poor. They struggled to get going offensively, while they were reasonably easy to get at in defence. Fortunately, Monday’s hosts have a decent record at home, so they shouldn’t be feeling too downbeat.

St. Pauli have lost just twice at home this season, while they’re now unbeaten in four at Millerntor-Stadion. Overall, Markus Kauczinski’s men have done a pleasing job of creating more than they’ve given away at home; they’ve averaged 1.59 expected goals for and have surrendered an average of 1.24 expected goals. Moreover, they’ve scored twice on average per home match and have conceded 1.24 at the other end. Such numbers tell us that they’ve probably been lucky to score quite as many as they have, but they also tell us that St. Pauli are reasonably useful.

Union Berlin are another useful team, so the hosts will have their work cut out on Monday. If this was Stadion An der Alten Försterei, then St. Pauli would be massively up against it, though Berlin have been less effective defensively on their travels. They’ve not giving an awful lot away in terms of chances, as the fact that they’re surrendering an average of 1.11 expected goals suggests, but they have made a habit of conceding. Union Berlin have had their last line of defence breached in seven of their nine away matches in 2. Bundesliga this season, while they’re without a clean sheet in each of their last four. During that time, they’ve shipped expected-goals figures of 2.18, 1.36, 1.57 and 1.44, so they’ve certainly not been at their best defensively.

This is by no means a gilt-edged opportunity for the hosts, but since Union Berlin have found it tough to be at their best on the road of late, it is still an opportunity for them to regain the winning thread. While St. Pauli have bettered their opponents in terms of expected goals in each of their last three at home, Monday’s visitors have ben easily outperformed in terms of expected goals in each of their last three on the road.

Consider the above in conjunction with the fact that St. Pauli have scored considerably more goals at home than Union have on the road and the fact that they boast an expected-goals for supremacy, backing ‘St. Pauli to Win’ at the current prices is hard to avoid. All in all, the hosts deserve to be shorter in the betting, so backing them at present offers punters a slither of value.