Tenerife vs Real Zaragoza Predictions

Tenerife, having finished in the top half last time around, will have been looking to progress this season, though they’ve moved in the wrong direction. A bottom-half finish is now the best that Sunday’s hosts can achieve, though they’ve not quite disappointed as much as Zaragoza, who were very much looking to push for promotion this season. After finishing 3^rd last term, Zaragoza have fallen massively short this campaign, as they come into this final weekend in a lowly 15^th position.

They’ve certainly not been good on their travels, though a lack of consistency at home has blighted Tenerife this season. Last season, they were very useful on their own patch, though this time around they’ve failed to turn promise into substance, as they’ve taken only 32 points from 20 matches at Estadio Heliodoro Rodríguez López. Such a total isn’t awful, but it pales into insignificance compared to the numbers posted by the top teams.

Not many teams, four to be exact, have gone to Tenerife and returned with maximum points, but it is an inability to turn draws into wins that has cost Sunday’s hosts, who’ve drawn eight and won eight at home this season. Defensively, in terms of goals conceded, they’ve done OK, shipping 21 in 20, though a total of 24 for during that time isn’t great. An average of 1.07 expected goals against is very respectable, but an average of 1.31 expected goals for is anything but menacing.

Like Tenerife at home, Zaragoza have struggled to be at their best on the road; they’ve lost more games than they’ve won, while they’ve struggled to score more than they’ve conceded. Going forward, there can be no doubting their quality, even on the road, as they’ve notched an impressive 28 goals. No team in the entire division has netted more away goals than Zaragoza, so they’re clearly no mugs in the final third, though their defensive antics have left plenty to be desired. Sunday’s visitors have given up 29 goals on their travels this season.

In the betting, there’s not too much between the pair; Tenerife are slight favourites but nothing more, which may seem fair given that they’re close together in the table. However, if we examine their respective home and away efforts more closely, then it’s easy to feel that a bet on the hosts represents a slither of value.

From a defensive point of view, the Tenerife have offered more at home than Zaragoza have on the road. The hosts average 1.05 goals and 1.07 expected goals against, while the visitors have surrendered averages of 1.45 and 1.43. Tenerife also average 1.31 expected goals for, which without being great, is far better than Zaragoza’s average of 0.88 on the road. Given such facts, it’s easy to feel that the hosts should be shorter in the betting, so backing ‘Tenerife to Win’ at the current prices is a viable option.