Tondela vs Rio Ave Predictions

• Under 2.5 goals have been produced in 4 of Tondela’s last 6 matches.
• Rio Ave are unbeaten in their last 5 matches, picking up 3 wins and 2 draws.
• Tondela have only won 1 of their 10 home games in the Primeira Liga.
• Rio Ave have won more games on the road (5) than they have in their own backyard (4).

Tondela have tended to struggle in front of their own fans this season

Tondela went down 1-0 away at Santa Clara last weekend while Rio Ave drew 1-1 at home with Sporting, meaning the gap between the two clubs was increased to 9pts. Rio Ave would move into the top four with a win, for 24hrs at least, and head into Saturday’s clash as the form favourites with three wins and two draws from their last five matches.

We’re expecting a low-scoring ninety minutes between the two clubs as four of Tondela’s last six matches have produced under 2.5 goals, with the hosts failing to score in three of their last four outings. 70% of Tondela’s home games and Rio Ave’s away games have produced under 2.5 goals so far this season, and only 40% of the hosts’ home matches and 30% of the visitors away trips have seen both teams score.

Tondela have already lost five times at home this season and have only won once in front of their own fans, while Rio Ave have secured five wins on the road. The hosts average 0.70 points per home game and the visitors average 1.70 points per away game, which suggests that the most likely result on Saturday is a Rio Ave win.

Rio Ave have a very good defensive record on the road

The hosts only score an average of 0.50 goals per home game and concede 1.20 goals while Rio Ave score an average of 1.30 goals per away game and concede 0.90 goals, which is why we have backed the visitors to win 1-0 this weekend. Tondela have failed to score in 50% of their home games in the league and Rio Ave have kept clean sheets in an impressive 40% of their away games, which only adds further weight to our prediction for a 1-0 away win this Saturday.

Exactly 1-goal has been scored in 30% of Tondela’s home matches this season, as well as in 20% of Rio Ave’s away trips, and we have backed just 1-goal to be scored between the pair this weekend. A majority of Tondela’s defeats this season (6) have had a 1-goal margin, while a majority of Rio Ave’s wins (5) have been obtained with a 1-goal margin.

We’re confident that under 2.5 goals will be produced in Saturday’s clash and we have predicted a final scoreline of 1-0 in favour of Rio Ave. The visitors arrive as the form favourites and have performed really well on the road this season, while Tondela have struggled at home, only winning once, and look much more comfortable when playing away.