TSG Hoffenheim vs Mainz 05 Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews

Hoffenheim’s 17 match unbeaten run in the Bundesliga came to a dramatic end last weekend in a 2-1 defeat away to RB Leipzig. Julian Nagelsmann’s side fought valiantly, but center forward Sandro Wagner’s 60th minute red card, which cut them down to 10 men, ultimately cost them the match. Meanwhile, Mainz kicked-off 2017 undefeated with back-to-back draws against European contenders Cologne (0-0) and Borussia Dortmund (1-1), despite star midfielder Yunus Malli’s transfer to VfL Wolfsburg.

Hoffenheim are the favourites here at 17/20, but we feel there’s better value in backing Mainz double chance at 19/20 for the following reasons: although Hoffenheim are unbeaten over their 9 matches at home this season, over half (56%) of these (and three of the last four) have ended in a draw. Admittedly, Mainz have lost all of their last five matches on the road, but heading into this off the back of two solid defensive performances, conceding just one goal against Cologne and Dortmund, is a welcome change of pace for a side with one of the worst defensive records in the Bundesliga.

Notably, Hoffenheim’s attacking options are limited by the absence of top scorer Sandro Wagner (10 goals in 17 appearances) to suspension, who’s 10 goals represent 1/3 of Hoffenheim’s 31 goals this season. Hoffenheim’s potential to keep a clean sheet (only 33% of matches at home) also takes a dent as core center back Kevin Vogt remains doubtful after being subbed off with an injury last time out. Especially as Mainz see the return of 2nd top scorer Jhon Cordoba from suspension.

Mainz against Hoffenheim has produced some dramatic matches in recent years, including the 4-4 draw between them earlier this season. However, following on from above, this match seems set to be a much more timid affair. As such, a 1-1 draw at 6/1 seems a reasonable shout here.