Walsall vs Wycombe Wanderers Predictions

After an excellent start to the season, Walsall have stuttered recently. They’ve won just one of their last five matches and also Saturday’s hosts have lost each of their last two. Now back on their own patch, the Saddlers will be hoping to regain the winning thread, though to do that they’ll need to get the better of a Wycombe side that comes into this fixture off the back of an encouraging 3-0 win.

On the face of it, Walsall have done well this season, though while they’ve certainly exceeded expectations and have played well at times, they’ve had plenty of good fortune, so much so that their return to a more modest league position is anything but surprising.

If we focus on their exploits at Bescot Stadium, it’s fair to say that Walsall have been somewhat disappointing. The Saddlers have won just two of their six home matches, while they’re now without a win in four in front of a home crowd. During that time, they’ve conceded five and have scored just one. The underlying stats suggest that they’ve been a tad unlucky not to score a few more, but they also tell us that they’ve been giving a lot away at the back. On average, Walsall are conceding 1.72 expected goals per home match, and if either of their last two home defensive efforts are repeated, then they’re going to struggle on Saturday.

However, while Walsall have given plenty away on their own patch, they cannot be discounted against a Wycombe side that has similar problems on the road. On their travels, Wycombe have won just once this season, while they’re yet to keep a clean sheet. Gareth Ainsworth’s men have conceded 12 goals in seven away games, which isn’t great, and it’s not as if they’ve been unlucky either, as their expected goals against average of 1.81 tells us. Frankly, if they’re conceding goals away to teams such as Plymouth, Bradford and Fleetwood, then it’s easy to see Walsall making plenty of offensive headway in this fixture.

From a betting point of view, goals are hard to get away from. Wycombe are conceding both plenty of goals and chances on their travels, while the hosts, despite not conceding an awful lot of goals, have given away an abundance of chances on home soil this season. Considering that there’s been an average of 3+ expected goals in Walsall’s home games and Wycombe’s away matches, ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ is perhaps a tad overpriced and is thus worth being on.