Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews

  • 14:30
  • Expired
  • Weserstadion
Werder Bremen
Borussia Dortmund

Tip Reasoning

Werder Bremen still sit precariously above the relegation zone, with just three points separating them and northern rivals Hamburg, despite finishing out 2016 strong. Bremen are unbeaten in their last five Bundesliga matches, collecting 9 of a possible 15 points (W2 D3), but Alexander Nouri’s side now face the daunting task of hosting Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich in the two matches following the winter hiatus.

Borussia Dortmund finished their year with three consecutive draws, a run of results that leaves them 12 points adrift of league leaders Bayern Munich one match before the halfway point of the season. Dortmund have not lost the opening game of the year since 2004 and their strong head-2-head record against Werder Bremen should no doubt leave them feeling confident ahead of this match.

Dortmund are the bookies’ favourites here at 1/2, however, we feel the form of the BVB, particularly away from home (W2 D3 L3), doesn’t warrant them to be a profitable bet here. Instead, we feel that under 2.5 goals at 17/10 has the potential to be an extremely profitable bet for the following reasons: Dortmund’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, who is the Bundesliga’s top goalscorer (16 goals from 15 appearances), will be absent here as he’s representing Gabon at the Africa Cup of Nations. Though Thomas Tuchel has plenty of attacking options at his disposal, Aubameyang’s 16 goal total represents just under half of Borussia Dortmund’s 35 goals so far this season and second top scorer Ousmane Dembele (4 goals in 15 apperances) is also out injured.

Meanwhile, Bremen were much improved at the back towards the end of 2016 and their tightened defensive performances have seen under 2.5 goals scored in each of their last three matches: a 1-0 win against Hertha Berlin and 1-1 draws against Cologne and Hoffenheim (all top seven sides of similar ability to Dortmund). Notably, Werder Bremen haven’t been scoring too many goals either, being forced to rely on ex-Arsenal winger Serge Gnabry as veteran striker Claudio Pizarro has failed to scored in any of his appearances so far this season.

Regarding a correct score bet, as both sides are trending towards lower scoring draws and Dortmund are without star Aubameyang, we feel that odds of 15/2 on a 1-1 draw offer a decent amount of value here.

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