Accrington Stanley vs Bristol Rovers Predictions

When they were last seen in League One, Accrington lost 3-0 away at Bradford, a defeat which came after losing 0-4 at home to Peterborough. However, Stanley bounced back last weekend, beating Ipswich by a goal to nil in the FA Cup, so John Coleman’s men ought to approach this fixture with renewed confidence.

Accrington’s win last weekend was a pleasing one, though the fact that they played a weak Championship side down on their luck shouldn’t be overlooked. The win will have lifted Stanley, but they’ll have to do much better than they did last time out in League One, especially from a defensive point of view. Coleman’s men conceded three goals and 1.46 expected goals against Bradford on New Year’s Day, while they conceded four goals and surrendered 3.14 expected goals against Peterborough shortly before that.

Keeping teams out has been a bit of a problem for Stanley this season, even on their own patch. Saturday’s hosts have conceded at least once in each of their last six at home (seven if we include their game against Sunderland that was abandoned after 78 minutes). What’s more, they’ve kept just one clean sheet at home during the current campaign.

Fortunately, Accrington face a Bristol Rovers side that is not the most creatively, nor the most potent in front of goal, so this could be a chance for them to keep things tight at the back.

Things have improved for the Pirates since Graham Coughlan took charge, but they’re still not looking overly menacing in the final third. Rovers have mustered a maximum of 1.0 expected goal in their last three, while they’ve managed just 0.33 and 0.73 in the two away matches that Coughlan has taken charge of. They don’t look bad defensively, while they’ve certainly been competitive in games, but their attacking numbers are a tad worrying.

In the betting, ‘Under 2.5 Goals’ stands out at the prices. Bristol Rovers have kept things very low key of late; they haven’t created much but they’ve also given little away. Furthermore, they’ve been involved in numerous low-scoring games on the road this season, which is unsurprising given the underlying numbers that they’ve posted. Rovers are averaging just 0.95 expected goals for on the road, while they’ve shipped only 1.25 on average.

With the visitors likely to tread with caution, as they have done in recent away games, it would be no surprise that there was a lack of both chances and goals at Crown Ground on Saturday. With this in mind, ‘Under 2.5 Goals’ looks slightly big in the betting and is thus worth a go.