Accrington Stanley vs Coventry Predictions

After beating Oxford in front of a home crowd and scoring four goals in the process, Accrington would’ve gone into last Saturday’s match against Southend feeling confident, though their confidence couldn’t see them through. Despite coming back from a goal down, John Coleman’s men were unable to make it two wins on the bounce.

Accrington excelled themselves when running riot in the final third against Oxford a week and a half ago, though it’s tough to put a positive spin on their efforts against Southend last weekend. Despite playing in front of a home crowd, Stanley struggled to create substantial opportunities against a half-decent Southend side, while their defensive efforts weren’t amazing either. Given that they ended the game with an expected goal difference of -0.77, they were perhaps a tad fortunate to escape with a 1-1 draw.

Fortunately, though results have been very up and down, Accrington have tended to perform well at home this season, or at least they’ve delivered several performances which suggest that they’re capable of getting the job done in front of their own fans. Coleman’s men are now unbeaten in three at Crown Ground, while prior to their draw last weekend, they bettered both Oxford and Bristol Rovers in terms of expected goals, which tells us that they carved out more going forward than they gave away at the other end. They’re averaging 1.6 expected goals for at home and are surrendering an average of 1.17, which is not bad, though it must be said that such figures need to be turned into regular points.

If we look at their numbers, then Coventry also have a decent profile on the road. Saturday’s visitors are averaging a pleasing 1.51 expected goals for, while they’ve shipped a respectable average of just 1.18. However, they’ve struggled to get their heads in front away from home of late, as they’ve failed to win all but one of their last four travelling matches, two of which they’ve lost. It’s fair to say that they’re not the easiest side to beat, as we saw when they held league leaders Luton to a draw last weekend, but they do find it tough to win on the road.

Going by the betting ahead of this match, Accrington and Coventry are reasonably closely matched and it’s hard to argue with that. Stanley’s overall efforts at home are not all that dissimilar to the Sky Blues’ on the road, so going for a bet on either team to come out on top makes little appeal at the current prices.

One bet that does make slight appeal is ‘Over 2.5 Goals’, which may just be a tad on the large side at present. Coventry have created plenty on their travels; they’re averaging 1.51 expected goals for and have recently posted some encouraging figures such as 2.14, 1.73, 1.44 and 2.0, while much of the same can be said for Accrington, who’ve recently posted expected-goals for numbers such as 3.54, 1.42 and 1.67 at Crown Ground. With the pair averaging a combined 3.11 expected goals for in their respective home and away games, backing the goals to flow on Saturday looks to be the best option.