Accrington Stanley vs Luton Town Predictions

Accrington gave themselves the slightest bit of breathing space last weekend, as they overcame a struggling Walsall side in front of a home crowd. That win means that John Coleman’s men are now four points above the drop-zone, though their job is far from complete. Stanley need to continue collecting points to ensure their safety, though getting anything from this match will be tough, especially as the league leaders are likely to be fired up after their defeat last time out.

It would have been easy for Accrington to throw the towel in after they played well but got nothing to show for their efforts against Rochdale, though Stanley dug deep and delivered another pleasing performance last time out, one that yielded all three points.

There can be no denying that Stanley have been poor since the turn of the year, but their last couple of efforts at home have been promising. They created considerably more than Rochdale, so much so that they probably should’ve won, while they showed both attacking quality and defensive solidity when beating Walsall last time out. Facing Luton will be much, much tougher than taking on two of League One’s strugglers, though at least the hosts are coming into this game off the back of a win and a good showing.

While Accrington have generally struggled in 2019, Luton have gone from strength to strength, though they were unable to maintain their unbeaten run last time out. Going away to Charlton was never going to be easy, though it must be said that the Hatters were poor. Going forward, they struggled to make much happen, as they clocked just 0.64 expected goals for, while they weren’t great at the back either, as they shipped 1.81.

Most people will expect the Hatters to bounce back on Friday. After all, Accrington are at the other end of the table, while they’ve not exactly made a habit of beating teams at home of late, as they’ve lost five of their last six at this venue.

However, if we dig a little deeper, there may be another route to go down. At the prices. ‘Under 2.5 Goals’ makes plenty of appeal. For all Luton have been good away from home this season, their recent attacking efforts haven’t been great. Since the turn of the year, the Hatters have averaged 1.36 expected goals for on the road, while they’ve scored an average of 1.38. Such numbers aren’t overly menacing. The fact that they’ve given little away, shipping an average of just 0.75 goals and 0.79 goals also suggests that a lack of goals may just be a tad overpriced.

If we add in the fact that Stanley have averaged just 0.89 goals at home, then a low-scorer becomes even more appealing. Furthermore, Friday’s hosts have averaged only 1.24 expected goals for at home in 2019 and have conceded an average of just 1.16. All in all, the numbers on offer tells us that a low-scoring affair is slightly more likely than the current prices suggest, so supporting a lack of goals offers punters a slice of value.