AFC Bournemouth vs Brighton Predictions

• Bournemouth have the worst defensive record in the league, shipping 55 goals
• The hosts face a league-high 5.3 shots on target per match
• Brighton have scored twice in all six of their to the bottom eight
• The Seagulls have drawn 2-2 at two of the current bottom four

Crucial week for Cherries

After a vital 2-1 win over Fulham at the weekend, a vital week at the Vitality continues for Bournemouth. The Cherries lifted themselves clear of the drop zone with that victory and they’ll hope home advantage can boost them against Brighton before this weekend’s trip to 19th-placed Leicester.

However, the hosts were fortunate to meet a Fulham side who were without suspended duo Aleksandar Mitrovic and Willian. Tuesday brings a tougher test for a Cherries side who have won just one of their last 13 midweek Premier League games (D3 L9). Brighton come into this chasing Europe and in fantastic form.

Defensive questions for hosts

While the hosts boosted their hopes of staying in the Premier League, they’re not meeting the defensive standards you need at this stage in the relegation battle. With as many as nine teams in the mix, tightening up could make all the difference. However, the Cherries are offering little resistance at the back.

The hosts have faced more shots than any other Premier League side this season (467), while their average of facing 5.3 shots on target per game is their highest in a single top-flight campaign. Unsurprisingly they also have conceded the most goals of any side in the division, having shipped 55 across 28 games at an average of 1.96 per match. That’s set to be a problem against a rampant Brighton side.

Seagulls in scoring stride

In their last game against Brentford, Brighton registered their most ever shots (33) and shots on target (15) in a single Premier League match. That 3-3 draw didn’t exactly go to plan for Roberto De Zerbi’s team, but he’s got them in a groove going forward.

The Seagulls have only failed to score in one of their last 14 Premier League away games, while they’ve hit 24 goals in 12 trips this season. The visitors have scored twice in all six of their visits to the bottom eight teams in the division, so back them to score at least twice against the league’s worst defence.

De Zerbi has really stepped up the visitors’ attacking options, even turning Solly March into a consistent top-flight scorer. After finding the net just twice in his first 79 away games in the Premier League he’s now scored four goals in his last five trips. Given that one of those first two goals came at the Vitality, look to him to score for the fourth time in five matches for the Cherries.

The visitors may be in scoring form, but they’ve also failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last 10 trips. They’ve already dropped points in 2-2 draws at Leeds and Leicester this season, while the hosts have lost once in their last five at home.

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