Ajax vs PEC Zwolle Predictions

• Four of Ajax’s last six matches produced three or fewer total goals.
• Each of Zwolle’s last nine games produced under 3.5 total goals.
• A joint league-high 24 of Zwolle’s games this season produced under 3.5 goals.
• The main selection won in eight of the last ten H2H meetings in Amsterdam.

Lukewarm Ajax edging towards the title

Now into their final four Eredivisie games under departing manager Erik ten Hag, the title seems all but assured for the Amsterdam outfit. The hosts enjoy a four-point gap over PSV ahead of this round and with the visit of a relegation-threatened Zwolle, many will have a home win as a foregone conclusion.

Backing such a result doesn’t make much sense though, as you will struggle to find many games with a shorter price on the home win than the approximate 1/8 on Ajax at the time of writing.

Consequently, other angles must be explored in order to squeeze value from this David vs Goliath encounter. Over half of Ajax’s home league games (9/16) produced over 3.5 total goals this term, but with eight of the last ten home H2Hs ending with under, this could buck the trend.

Blue Fingers must dig in

Occupying the relegation play-off spot ahead of the round, Zwolle come here knowing that they need to cause a massive upset if they have any hopes of ending the weekend any closer to safety.

The visitors have shown resurgent form, with three of their four away league wins all season coming across the last five trips. Combine that with their mere 2.3 total average goals per game – well below the Eredivisie average of 2.82 – and this could be a more cagey affair than it seems on paper.

While it is a risky selection, we predict that the best value selection on offer is under 3.5 total goals at a shade of odds on. As for the correct score, we are sticking with Ajax to win, albeit by a rather tame 2-0 scoreline.

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