Alcorcon vs Extremadura Predictions

Alcorcon’s season has been over for some time; they’re in no danger of going down, while they cannot get anywhere near the top six. Such a fact probably goes someway to explaining why they were so poor last time out. Now back in front of their own fans, Alcorcon will be looking to heap the pressure on the visitors, who’re still in danger of going down.

It’s not been a great season for Alcorcon, but that’s not to say that they’ve been poor at home. In front of their own fans, Saturday’s hosts have impressed, especially from a defensive point of view. Only four teams have gone to Estadio Municipal de Santo Domingo and won this season, while only three teams, all of which are currently in the top four, have conceded less home goals than Alcorcon.

Recent results at this venue haven’t really gone Alcorcon’s way, though they did secure a pleasing draw against the current league leaders last time out. Frankly, if they can keep a clean sheet (and give away just 0.51 expected goals) against the current league leaders, then getting the better of Extremadura, who’ve not been great on the road this season, should be within the grasp of Sunday’s hosts.

Extremadura have performed better than many people would’ve expected this season; they’re currently outside of the drop-zone (narrowly), while they come into this game having beaten some decent sides of late.

Sunday’s visitors have won plenty of games in recent weeks, but their overall away-day efforts have been reasonably weak. They’ve only won five games on the road this season, while their underlying numbers are poor. Extremadura average just 0.87 expected goals for on their travels, while they’ve surrendered an average of 1.37. In contrast, Alcorcon average 1.15 for and just 0.75 against at home.

In the betting, ‘Alcorcon to Win & Under 3.5 Goals’ stands out as a viable option. The hosts haven’t been amazing in the final third, but they’ve offered more than the visitors, while they’ve also done a much better job of denying teams. Alcorcon, who’ve kept a clean sheet in 58% of their home games, have conceded an average of just 0.61 goals at home, while the Extremadura have shipped an average of 1.16 on the road. Consider this in conjunction with the expected goals numbers above and backing the hosts to edge a relatively low-scoring affair makes plenty of appeal.