Ankaragucu vs Istanbul Basaksehir Predictions

It’s been a fine season so far for Basaksehir, who currently hold a four-point advantage at the top of the Turkish Super Lig. However, Monday’s visitors will arrive at Osmanlı Stadium having failed to win either of their last two matches, so there is some hope for the hosts, who’re searching for their first victory in five matches.

After going through a very successful patch around late October/early November, Ankaragucu are once again struggling to really leave their mark on the top flight this season. They’re not in immediate danger of being sucked into the relegation battle, as they sit six points above the bottom three, though Monday’s hosts have failed to win any of their last three, while their performances during that time have left plenty to be desired.

On the face of it, their draw against Rizespor last time out was a decent result, but they didn’t play well, nor did they deserve to take a share of the spoils. The fact that they clocked just 0.76 expected goals for tells us that they were perhaps a shade fortunate to find the net, while they were certainly lucky to not concede more than one, as they gave away a whopping 2.79 expected goals at the other end. A similar defensive effort against the league leaders will almost definitely land the hosts in trouble.

Basaksehir were defeated in the league for the first time in almost four months last time out, but while Ankaragucu were fortunate to draw, they were unfortunate to come away with nothing. They outdid they’re opponents in all areas, but simply didn’t get the rub of the green, so it’s probably fair to say that they’ll be fired up on Monday evening.

As you would expect from a team on top of the table, Basaksehir have been strong on their travels this season; they’ve won four out of seven on the road and have lost just once. The fact that they’ve allowed their opponents to score just twice away from home during the current campaign is particularly impressive. If we consider the fact that they’ve been breached just twice on their travels alongside the fact that they’ve surrendered an average of just 0.96 expected goals away from home, then it’s easy to conclude that the league leaders are an astute outfit at the back.

However, while they’ve looked very good defensively, Basaksehir haven’t been overly menacing going forward when playing away from home. They’re averaging just 1.29 expected goals for, which doesn’t exactly suggest that they’re amazingly creative, while they’ve scored more than once in just two of their seven away matches, notching a modest total of seven.

The hosts aren’t exactly powerhouses in the final third either. Ankaragucu are averaging just 1.06 expected goals for this season, which tells us that, just like Basaksehir away, they’re not really testing their opponents all that often.

From a betting point of view, with neither side looking overly menacing in the final third, ‘Under 2.5 Goals’ stands out at the prices. The visitors, who currently rank as Turkey’s best team in terms of both goals against and expected goals against, have the credentials to keep a lacklustre Ankaragucu attack quiet, though they’re not the sort of side to go away from home and win in high-scoring fashion, as we’ve seen on regular basis this season.