Australia Women vs Brazil Women Predictions

Beating Italy was supposed to something of a formality for world number-six Australia on match-day one, though the Matildas came unstuck. When Sam Kerr notched from the spot midway through the first half, all was going to plan, though a defensive error saw them pegged back shortly after the restart, and they failed to establish control from there, finally losing the match in the 95^th minute. After such a disappointing start, the Aussies will be looking to bounce back against a Brazilian side that made light work of winning first time out.

The Aussies did come unstuck on match-day one, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that they played badly. In fact, they were much the better side, as an expected goal difference of +1.92 suggests. If the game was replayed, Australia would almost certainly have the win wrapped up before the Italians attempted to rally late on.

Brazil won first time out, though their victory against a weak Jamaica side shouldn’t be taken too seriously. They did get the job done, scoring a couple of very good goals in the process, but it must be said that they had something of an easy task against a side ranked 53^rd in the world. In contrast, Australia’s opponents Italy currently rank 15^th.

If we consider that Jamaica are considerably worse than the Italians, as we’re likely to see on Friday, then the fact that Australia managed to create 2.54 expected goals for on match-day one is more impressive than the fact that Brazil posted 3.37. Similarly, we ought to be more encouraged by the fact that the Aussies conceded 0.40 less than the Brazilians did first time out.

At the end of the day, we’re talking about two good sides, though the Australians rank four places above the Brazilians for a reason. Brazil have lots of experience in their squad, experience which made all the difference against minnows during the first round of games, but how will their declining physical game fare against an energetic Australian outfit?

From a betting point of view, it’s tough to go against the Matildas, who would probably be a bit shorter had they beat Italy. If we look beyond that result, the performance of Ante Milicic’s women suggests that they can get the better of an ageing Brazil side that had it easy on match-day one. After all, Australia have beaten Brazil four times since 2017.