Basel vs Luzern Predictions

Basel have endured a rather disappointing season; they are going to finish in 2^nd place but given that their goal was to lay down a serious challenge for the title, it’s fair to say that they’ve failed miserably. In contrast, Luzern have had a pleasing campaign, a campaign which could finish on a high. Wednesday’s visitors have three games to snatch a top-five place from either Lugano or St. Gallen, who’re one and two points in front of Thomas Häberli’s men.

Given their ultimate goal, Basel have fallen short this season, but they’ve still been one of the best teams in the division. Prior to losing against champions Young Boys last time out, Marcel Koller’s men recorded a trio of 3-0 wins, while they were unbeaten in no less than 16 matches.

However, though Basel went on a lengthy unbeaten run prior to last weekend’s defeat, they weren’t always overly convincing, while they’ve been halted by several teams this season. On their own patch, Wednesday’s hosts have done well; they’re unbeaten at home since losing to Young Boys back in July of last year, though plenty of teams have held the side that is going to finish second. The likes of St. Gallen, Grasshopper, Lugano, Xamax and Thun have all returned from St. Jakob-Park with a share of the spoils, so there’s certainly hope for Luzern, who just so happen to be the only team to win away against the champions this season.

Luzern have done well all round this season; they’ve scored plenty of goals, have been tough to beat and have even performed to a high level away from home. In fact, only the current top two have accumulated more travelling points than Wednesday’s visitors, who’ve lost just one of their last six away games.

Thomas Häberli’s men have beaten two of the current top four away from home this season, while they’ve also either won or drawn away against five of the current top seven, so it’s clear that they’re no mugs. What’s more, they performed very well when only narrowly losing (2-1) at this venue earlier in the campaign. On that occasion, Luzern were somewhat unfortunate, as they clocked a pleasing 2.55 expected goals for, which was only 0.18 less than they gave away.

When we consider the fact that Luzern have been tough to beat on their travels in conjunction with the fact that they performed well at this venue earlier in the season, it becomes somewhat easy to feel that the visitors are overpriced ahead of Wednesday’s clash. Add in the fact that Luzern have surrendered less expected goals on the road (on average) than Basel have at home, as well as the fact that they’re the side with something still to play for, and ‘Luzern +1 Handicap’ stands out as the best option.