Bayer Leverkusen vs Nurnberg Predictions

Bayer Leverkusen brought an end to their three-match losing streak in Stuttgart on Saturday. Leverkusen dominated but it took a Kai Havertz goal from the penalty spot to separate the two sides and those valuable three points see them back in the race for European football next season. Peter Bosz’s men are just two points adrift of the top six, and they should like their chances of closing the gap this weekend. On their day, Leverkusen can be quite the force – they recently had a spell of six wins from seven, which included a 3-1 win over Bayern Munich, losing only to then league leaders Borussia Dortmund – but some recent results show there are defensive issues to resolve.

Nurnberg will have been content with their last meeting with Leverkusen, which ended in a 1-1 draw, but a lot has changed since then. Der Club have won just one of their last 23 matches (W1 D7 L15) – that being a 3-0 win over fellow strugglers Augsburg at the end of March – and what’s worse is that they’ve taken just three points away from home this season (D3 L11). Survival has always been the target, but that looks a tougher ask than ever. Even star midfielder Hanno Behrens – their top scorer in their 17/18 promotion-winning season – is yet to be the answer since his return from injury and they have just five matches to make up a nine-point deficit.

It’s no surprise, therefore, that Leverkusen are big favourites here, but we feel the value for this game is in goals. Nurnberg might be the lowest scoring side in the Bundesliga, but they’ve had some success in front of goal against weaker defences in recent weeks. Against a Leverkusen side that has conceded a massive 11 goals over their last five matches, an average of over two per game, we like them to continue that run. Additionally, Leverkusen’s league matches so far in 2019 have seen a huge 44 goals – an average of 3.66 per game – with both teams scoring in four of Leverkusen’s and three of Nurnberg’s last five league outings too.

Another away trip is not good news for Nurnberg, though, particularly given their track record against Leverkusen. Nurnberg have lost five of their last six meetings with Die Werkself and, as mentioned before, their away record doesn’t show any reason to support why this trend might change on Saturday. And even though Nurnberg have actually failed to keep a clean sheet in 20 consecutive Bundesliga away matches, interestingly, their defensive record is on the rise – only three teams have conceded fewer than Der Club in 2019 – so this shouldn’t be a riot. Our prediction: 2-1 Leverkusen.