Bayern Munich vs Hannover 96 Predictions

Bayern Munich increased their lead atop the Bundesliga to two points on Sunday, despite taking just a draw away from relegation-fighting Nurnberg. Dortmund’s failures against rival Schalke have handed Bayern, who are now unbeaten in ten league outings (W8 D2), a huge advantage in the title race – Bayern’s superior goal difference means that two wins and a draw from their last three should be enough to be crowned champions. No doubt coach Niko Kovac will also be happy that the first of these is at home to relegation-fighting Hannover at the Allianz Arena this weekend.

Hannover’s own struggles have had it all: poor displays, bad luck, and a recent managerial change. So many things have gone against them and coach Thomas Doll is not being helped by his treatment room having more first team players than he has to field. To make matters worse, Hannover’s win over Mainz last weekend was made all but redundant with Schalke and Stuttgart pulling off shock wins, results that mean that their only hope of retaining their top-flight status is through the relegation play-offs. And even that would rely on them winning at least two of their last three games.

It’s no surprise, that Bayern are big favourites here – it’s David versus Goliath and the Bavarians have won each of the last 13 matches between them. However, the over/under goals line is set so high that we do feel that there is still value to be had in this game. No team has scored fewer goals in Bundesliga matches so far in 2019 than Hannover – 9 goals, an average of under one per game – and Bayern hold the second best defense in the league. Going off that, it’s tough to really expect Hannover to have a chance of getting on the scoresheet at all, which puts a bet on ‘under 4.5 goals’ into perspective.

Over 4.5 goals has landed in 33% of Bayern’s home matches this season, but Bayern have scored more than four in just 3 of their 15 home games (20%) – that is, the high scoring games often rely on the away team scoring too. Hannover themselves have conceded more than four in just 2 of their 15 away matches as well (13%), and their “improving” defensive form – the North Germans have conceded no more than one goal in four of their last five, including clean sheets in their last two – could give them a boost in keeping Bayern at bay. Anything other than a commanding home win, though, does remain unrealistic. Our prediction: 4-0 Bayern.