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Blackpool vs Plymouth Argyle Predictions

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  • Bloomfield Road
Blackpool
Plymouth Argyle

odds when tipped

odds when tipped

Blackpool vs Plymouth Argyle Predictions

Two draws and a loss from three games has dented Blackpool’s hopes of achieving a top-six finish, though the Seasiders kept their play-off dreams alive last weekend, as they went away to Bradford and returned with all three points. Terry McPhillips’ men remain four points shy of 6th place, though with seven games to go, they’re not out of it.

Blackpool do come into this match off the back of a pleasing victory last time out, but if we review that effort, it’s easy to feel that they were somewhat fortunate to, at the very least, win by such a wide margin. In terms of overall quality and nous, it was the Seasiders who had more about them, as they adopted a counter-attacking approach, though their hosts certainly weren’t without chances. The fact that Bradford clocked 2.79 expected goals for suggests that Blackpool were lucky to concede just once, while the fact that McPhillips’ men posted 1.44 tells us that they weren’t quite as dominant as their four goals would have us believe.

Giving quite a bit away is becoming a bit of a habit for Blackpool. Not only did they surrender a rather chunky 2.79 expected goals last time out, but they also gave up 2.1 when losing 3-0 away against Burton prior to that. Even at home, the Seasiders haven’t exactly been keeping things tight at the back, as they’ve shipped at least once in four of their last five. Their average of 1.31 expected goals against at home certainly isn’t terrible, but it does tell us that they’re giving up enough to concede at least once most of the time.

Having turned their fortunes around a while ago, Plymouth have struggled a tad of late. They have lost just one of their last four, though they’ve only won once during that time and are now without a win in two. Moreover, they’ve lost each of their last two on the road and have now failed to score in three straight away matches, as well as in four of their last five.

In addition to misfiring in four of their last five on the road, Plymouth, who’re averaging just 0.94 expected goals for away from home this season, have posted some discouraging expected-goals for numbers of late, clocking 0.5, 0.51, 0.61, 1.11 and 0.21 in their last five travelling matches. Such numbers tell us that the Pilgrims have been finding it very tough to get going offensively when playing away from home. The fact that they’ve conceded numbers of 2.34, 1.45, 1.66, 0.87 and 1.7 during that time doesn’t exactly bode well either.

Blackpool have been a bit fortunate from a defensive point of view lately, but their overall profile at home is far more appealing than Plymouth’s on the road. The hosts can easily better the visitors in terms of goals for, goals conceded, average expected goals for and average expected goals against, so it’s easy to side with a home win. At the prices, the best option appears to be ‘Blackpool to Win & Over 1.5 Goals’.

The Seasiders, who’ve scored at least twice in three of their last five at home, average a respectable 1.56 expected goals for at home, so this match against a side that has conceded an average of 1.99 on the road represents a good opportunity for them to notch twice on route to victory.

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