Burnley vs Aberdeen Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews

Burnley’s return to European football wasn’t all it was built up to be, as they drew 1-1 away to Scottish Premiership side Aberdeen. Had you missed the name of the competition, you could have been forgiven for writing this one off as another pre-season friendly. The Clarets were favourites in their trip north, and they’re now heavily backed to finish the job on home soil. Can they pick up a victory in their first home European game since April 1967?

The Scottish side are said to be focusing only on their European commitments, despite a huge league opener with Rangers just around the corner. Those two are set to duel it out for second in the Premiership, but both are now looking to progress in Europe after losing out early on last season. The Dons have been handed a tricky encounter, but they do have the edge on Burnley in terms of European experience. Will they make that count in this visit to Turf Moor?

Aberdeen are quickly being written off ahead of this one, which has been made clear by Burnley’s pre-match odds. However, we can’t see this game being as clear cut as the bookies are making out. After all, the Dons have been through European tests, while Burnley really didn’t convince in the first leg. The hosts do seem a tad stale after failing to make a signing so far, which is another negative which could impact the Clarets.

Aberdeen’s record is certainly worth focusing on. Not only have they lost just two of their last nine in the Europa League, but they’ve been solid on the road. They’ve won five and drawn one of 11 away trips in Europe, which isn’t bad for a club of their size. Meanwhile, many of their away defeats have been close, with their last four losses in this competition seeing three come by a single goal. Burnley aren’t the kind of adventurous side who are likely to pour forward and score three or four, and 12 of their 14 league wins last term came by a one goal margin. As a result, we think it’s worth backing Aberdeen with a +2 handicap, a bet which will give us a return if the Dons lose by a single goal, or avoid defeat.

We are siding with Aberdeen because a narrow Burnley win seems likely. The Clarets were specialists in 1-0 wins last term, and we see this going the same way. Sean Dyche’s men saw three goals in just 32% of their league games at home, while 92% overall saw fewer than four. With the failure to strengthen their frontline becoming a real issue, we see another low scoring game. That has us backing Burnley to win with under 2.5 goals in the game, which looks like great value given the Clarets’ strong defence and habit of winning by a single goal.