Carlisle vs Cheltenham Predictions

Ahead of last weekend’s fixture at Sixfields, Carlisle had little to grumble about; they’d won six on the bounce and were seemingly only moving in the correct direction. However, the Cobblers threw a spanner in the works, beating the Blues by three goals to nil. Saturday’s hosts now need to bounce back if they want to remain in the top six.

On the face of it, Carlisle were battered last time out, though the score-line was a little misleading. Northampton were certainly more clinical in front of goal, but they did anything but batter Carlisle, who dictated the tempo and created more opportunities. The fact that the Blues ended the game with an expected goal supremacy of +0.39 tells us that they were perhaps unlucky.

Last weekend’s result will have been a disappointment, but Carlisle will know that it wasn’t a true reflection on their performance, while they’ll also take plenty of confidence from the fact that they’ve been very good at home in recent times. Saturday’s hosts have won each of their last four at Brunton Park, scoring 15 goals and conceding just three in the process. Unsurprisingly, in each of this four, Carlisle have created lots more than their opponents. Their last four expected goals for figures at home read: 1.78, 1.64, 2.04 and 2.44. Such numbers bode well ahead of a match against a Cheltenham side that hasn’t been great on the road.

While Carlisle have been creating plenty of chances and scoring plenty of goals at home in recent times, Cheltenham have given plenty away on their travels. The visitors come into this match having managed to secure some useful results, but their performances, especially from a defensive point of view, haven’t been all that positive. On average, Cheltenham are conceding 1.58 expected goals on the road, which doesn’t exactly scream defensive solidity, while they’ve conceded two or more goals in five of their last ten away matches. Against Carlisle’s strong attack, the visitors could struggle.

In the betting, ‘Carlisle to Score Over 1.5 Goals’ stands out. The hosts, who’ve notched at least twice in five of their last six at Brunton Park, have offered plenty in terms of both creativity and end-product at home of late, as the numbers above show. At the same time, Cheltenham haven’t looked the most secure on the road, so home goals would be anything but a surprise on Saturday afternoon.