Charlton vs Accrington Stanley Predictions

Having drawn 1-1 with Sunderland the weekend before, Charlton went to New Meadow last weekend knowing that they needed to get a result to keep pace with those around them, and get a result is exactly what they did. Having beaten a decent Shrewsbury side by three goals to nil away from home, Lee Bowyer’s men should be full of confidence and will thus fancy themselves to continue moving on up.

There was plenty to like about the way Charlton went about their business against a side that is normally very sturdy last time out. You could say that the Addicks merely capitalised on the Shrews having an off day at the back, but that would take away from the fact that Lee Bowyer’s men made life tough for the Shrews and scored three goals because they created plenty of chances with good attacking play. Not many teams will go to New Meadow and score three goals or create 2.81 expected goals for, so it’s fair to say that Charlton are not a side to take lightly.

As well as last weekend’s excellent effort, which will fill the hosts with confidence, Charlton have been very good at home for some time. The Addicks have avoided defeat in each of their last eight at home, six of which they’ve won. They’ve kept four clean sheets during that time, have scored two or more on six occasions, have notched a total of 15 goals and have shipped just four. In addition, Bowyer’s side are currently averaging 1.6 expected goals for at home and are conceding just 0.93 at the other end.

While Charlton have looked strong at The Valley, Accrington have struggled to pick up wins away from home of late. Saturday’s visitors have won just one of their last six on the road, while their performances during that time haven’t been too encouraging. Stanley are far from one of the worst sides in League One and they can make their presence felt going forward, but they’ve found it very tough to keep things tight at the back. John Coleman’s men have conceded a disappointing 12 goals in their last five travelling matches. They’ve unsurprisingly been bettered in terms of expected goals in four of those five.

Given what we’ve seen from this pair of late, especially in their respective home and away matches, ‘Charlton to Score Over 1.5 Goals’ is easy to get behind. Having made light work of scoring goals at home, the Addicks ought to enjoy playing against an open Accrington side, a side that surrenders an average 1.7 expected goals on the road. All things considered, backing the hosts to notch multiple times makes plenty of sense, given both the numbers and recent form of both.