Coventry vs Walsall Predictions

Having looked as though they were primed for a crack at the top six around the turn of the year, Coventry went massively off the boil in January, but they regained the winning thread last time out with a timely win away against Rochdale, which means that the Sky Blues should come into this home match against a struggling Walsall side with renewed confidence.

After a string of poor results, Coventry finally got their heads back in front and their victory was undoubtedly deserved, as they outplayed a struggling Rochdale side. On that occasion, they dominated massively in terms of both creativity and final-third productivity, as they emerged with an expected goal difference of +1.2. If they can replicate that performance against a poor Walsall side, then the Sky Blues ought to secure back-to-back wins for the first time since New Year’s Day.

Even at home, Coventry haven’t been at their best of late, but their overall efforts at Ricoh Arena this season suggest that they ought to be capable of hurting a side like Walsall, who’re not great on the road. Last time out at home, Mark Robins’ men could only manage to draw with Gillingham, but the fact that they offered lots going forward and recorded 1.8 expected goals bodes well ahead of this match, as does the fact that they’re averaging 1.56 expected goals for at Ricoh Arena this season.

Moreover, although Coventry’s attacking efforts at hone have been far from flawless, they’ve often done well against sides that are quite open at the back, such as Walsall. The Sky Blues recorded 1.8 expected goals for against Gillingham, 2.6 expected goals for against Accrington, 1.77 against Wycombe, 1.67 against Rochdale, 1.95 against Plymouth and 1.81 against Scunthorpe. A replication of any of those attacking efforts should see Coventry’ forward-line do well on Saturday.

Every now and then, Walsall, who’re currently 17^th in the table, have come up with something decent on the road, but they come into this match badly out of form having lost each of their last four, while their overall efforts suggest that they’re there for the taking.

Saturday’s visitors haven’t offered the greatest amount going forward, but that’s not their main problem when playing on the road. Their biggest problem on their travels has been a lack of defensive solidity. The Saddlers have conceded at least once in eight of their last ten travelling matches, while they’ve conceded at least twice in three of their last four and are surrendering an average of 1.59 expected goals for.

In the betting, it is ‘Coventry to Win & Over 1.5 Goals’ that stands out. The Sky Blues, who average 2.00 expected goals for at home against bottom-eight teams, haven’t been the most prolific side at home, but their efforts against weak defensive sides such as Walsall suggest that they can thrive on Saturday. What’s more, the hosts have offered lots more defensive resistance than their opponents, so they ought to be capable of keeping things tight whilst having a real go at the other end.