Exeter City vs Morecambe Predictions

When they lost against Grimsby on New Year’s Day, Exeter looked in danger of dropping out of the top six, though they bounced back to strengthen their play-off credentials by soundly beating Swindon away from home last time out. With that confidence boosting win under their belts, the Grecians are likely to approach this game in confident mood.

Exeter come into this match off the back of two defeats, though punters shouldn’t be fooled by such results. In both of those matches, the Grecians created the better scoring opportunities and thus didn’t really deserve to lose. Against Grimsby, they amassed a whopping 4.05 expected goals, conceding just 1.39 at the other end, while also bettered their opponents in terms of expected goals (by 0.75) last time out.

Similarly, results haven’t always gone Exeter’s way at home, but their performances have often been useful at St James Park. In terms of expected goals, Saturday’s hosts have bettered their opponents in nine of their 13 home games this season, while they boast an overall expected goal difference of +0.74.

In contrast, creating more than the opponent is not something that Morecambe have found easy to do on their travels. The visitors have won none of their last four away matches, while they’ve won just three times away from home all season. Moreover, their underlying numbers are particularly worrying. It’s easy to see why Morecambe, who’ve scored just less than a goal per away game on average, don’t notch all that many. They’re averaging just 0.87 expected goals for, which tells us that creating regular scoring opportunities is not really their thing away from home.

Some teams can get away with not creating much because they’re sturdy at the back, but to say that Morecambe have looked useful in defence on the road would be a lie. The visitors have kept just three clean sheets on their travels, while they’ve surrendered an average of 1.75 expected goals away from home, which means that they currently boast an average expected goal difference of -0.88.

In all honesty, this is a massive opportunity for the hosts. Morecambe are a side that can be dominated, especially by a side like Exeter who simply offer lots more at both ends of the pitch. With an average expected goal advantage of 1.62 over their opponents, the Grecians are backed to resume winning ways in good style. Punters can profit by getting on both ‘Exeter to Win’ & ‘Exeter to Score Over 1.5 Goals’.