FC Ingolstadt vs Mainz 05 Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews

Ingolstadt’s time in the top flight will soon be over if the Bavarian’s fail to shake this slump in form. Coach Maik Walpurgis’ record of 17 points from 15 games is miles better than predecessor Markus Kauczinski (2 points in 10 matches), but a tough set of fixtures has seen the South Germans fall ten points adrift from safety. Ingolstadt will, however, take encouragement from their 1-0 defeat Borussia Dortmund last time out – a point for Ingolstadt wouldn’t have been “undeserved” given their performance – and the fact that all of their next five matches are against bottom half sides.

Mainz 05 have been sucked worryingly close to the bottom three after a 1-0 defeat at home to Schalke left them win-less in three going into the international break (D1 L2). Mainz 05 slipped up against Darmstadt, who are rock bottom of the Bundesliga, in their last away match and simply cannot afford a similar outcome on Sunday.

Ingolstadt are the favourites at 11/10 with bet365, but we feel that there’s value in goals here, with over 2.5 goals at 6/5 being the best value bet for the following reasons: both Ingolstadt’s and Mainz’s poor form stems from patchy defensive performances – Ingolstadt have conceded an average of 1.75 goals per match at home and Mainz an average of 1.83 goals per match on the road – and an inability to score against defensively tight sides. Given that both teams fall into the same category, and the fact that three points has been deemed “essential” for both, neither side should have trouble creating and converting chances.

Also, with over 2.5 goals scored in 42% of Ingolstadt’s home and 75% of Mainz 05’s away matches, the statistics alone make odds of 6/5 a profitable endeavor. Combine this with Ingolstadt’s reasonable run of two goals scored in three of their last six Bundesliga matches, alongside Mainz’s own run of at least one goal scored in three of their last four, and the odds seem even more in our favour.

Regarding a correct score bet, despite a string of poor results, Ingolstadt’s performances over their much tougher set of fixtures have been more impressive than that of Mainz 05, who have simply under-performed. Mainz have lost seven of their last eight on the road and, as such, we feel the Bavarians have a really solid chance to clinch this one. Hence, a 2-1 Ingolstadt win at 8/1 is a decent shout here.